Iowa Caucus Guess The Results Thread

At best, 6% of the eligible voters in Iowa participate in the Iowa Caucus. It has no legitimacy or relevancy, except the mainstream media makes this exercise as instrumental in the choosing of the President as any single event.

 

The thing to watch will be if any of the candidates does better than expected, even if he/she doesn't win outright. These early caucuses/primaries are as much about convincing the media that you're coming on strong as anything else. Then they'll jump on your bandwagon, the voting public (and donors) will buy into the hype, and the other candidates will fall by the wayside. Next thing you know, the nomination is decided by St. Patrick's Day, if not sooner.

A candidate who finishes a surprisingly close second in Iowa comes out better than someone who comes in first but by a disappointingly small margin.

 

1. Clinton
2. Edwards
3. Obama

1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee

And Huckabee most likely to do the Howard Dean screaming . . .

 

Saw on CNN that 8 of the last 13 winners in Iowa went on to their party's nomination.
The last not to win there but get the nod?

Bill Clinton.

 

Where is this in the Vegas odds?

 

When it comes to caucuses, it's not just about who people believe in, but it's also about whether they feel strongly enough to spend an entire night supporting that candidate.

With that in mind.....
DEM: 1. Obama. 2. Edwards. 3. Hillary. Obama will be the clear winner because of the whole viability thing the Democrats have (Kucinich and company will throw support behind Obama), with Edwards and Hillary about even.

REP: 1. Huckabee (religious ties). 2. McCain (Pakistan troubles give him bounce). 3. Paul (because his supporters will show).

Huckabee's support, however, might not last. I just happened to listen to Rush Limbaugh for about 10 minutes today (radio was on same station that broadcast UGA-Hawaii last night), and he was ripping into Huckabee pretty good over taxes and immigration. Limbaugh isn't the political force he was 10-12 years ago, but his voice still counts for something among conservatives....

 

Dems
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Hil

GOP
1. Huckster
2. Mitt
3. McCain

 

Please, let Clinton get her ass kicked. That is all.

 

Which is a bit of a aberration, in that Clinton never campaigned there.

Tom Harkin ran that year and got 70-some percent of the vote. Clinton skipped it altogether and spent months in New Hampshire.

 

Obama is a heavy favorite for Iowa, Hillary still the favorite to win nationally.

 

Zeke, lol, I was referring to the agate pages....under NFL playoffs. Just having fun.

 

I'm picking same as Fen.