Israel and Leba-nin

everyone chill. it most likely will not come close to that having to happen. relax.

 

I'm jumping into this thing late, but if I may offer an opinion I think I see the larger picture here. Follow me for a minute...

1) The U.S. generally backs Israel, and is doing so now vocally, if not militarily. Iran and Syria back Lebanon and are doing so militarily (at least, apparently).
2) The U.S. girds its loins and tells Iran to knock it off. Iran, when not trying to figure out how to unlock 60-year-old nuclear technology, says fuck off. This cycle repeats itself for a while, until Israel decides it's had enough and attacks Syria or Iran. Hopefully, they don't go nuclear.
3) The U.S., with troops in Iraq and Afghanistan (two countries that border Iran), is forced to jump into the fray to protect not only its ally Israel, but also its own self interest. Like it or not, $5 a gallon gas and an unwillingness to use our own oil reserves will cripple this country in a hurry.
4) The combined military might of the U.S. and Israel quickly overwhelms Iran. It may take longer than a week, but Iran can't win a conventional war like that. If they don't have nukes (and this whole thing is stirring up a premise to hit them before they do), Iran is screwed.
5) Bush takes more crap for eliminating an Axis of Evil® member. Next stop, North Korea!

 

Well, if the apoclypse happens pretty soon, I won't have to finish that golf tab.

God must be patient...with the shit humanity pulls, you'd think the Almighty would 'a' smote us a while back...

By the way, no one will be overrunning Iran in a week. I'm not overly informed as to their military strength, but they're much stronger than a sanction-weakened Iraq. And the friggin country is almost entirely mountains, big ones...grab an atlas and look at a topographic map of that place...looks like Methusalah's scrotum.

Iran...to think that a few years back, there was a spirited reform movement and the mullahs were losing their grip. Buy, did the West ever screw the pooch on dealing with that country. Not that the swing back to reaction was all the West's fault, but we didn't do the forces of moderation any favors.

 

A war in Iran would be even more costly than Iraq. It's a bigger country and very very mountainous, hence much harder to cross and more suitable to guerilla warfare that at least somewhat neutralizes whatever technological advantages we have.

And speaking strictly from an objective standpoint, God forbid if Israel gets involved. Remember when Saddam launched scud missiles at Israel during the first Gulf War and we had to convince Israel to not retaliate? That's because if Israel had gotten involved, the entire Arab world would have had to fight against the U.S. and Israel, as they saw Israel as the greater of the two evils.

If Israel gets involved with any significant military conflict in the Middle East, it becomes both World War III and a modern day Crusades.

 

I didn't think about the mountains in Iran. That would make it more difficult. If the U.S. takes the gloves off and doesn't fight like a bunch of pussies, though (i.e., don't be afraid to bomb a mosque to take out a stash of bad guys and weapons), there's no military on earth that can beat it. Speaking strictly from an Xs and Os standpoint, of course.
That said, if Israel does get involved then it is World War III. Then the entire religious angle comes into play, the U.S. won't find ANY sympathizers anywhere, whatever goodwill we've built in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan goes out the window, and you have way too many nutjobs seeing this as the end of the world and willing to blow themselves up to bring it about. God help us, some may even have nukes. In short, that's when it's time to learn how to shoot a deer, get water from a pump and head for the hills for about 20 years.
Makes me wish I had bought "Ragnar's 10 best man traps ... and a few others that are damn good, too" off of Loompanics while I had the chance.

 

If Iran does attack, maybe Europe will wake the fuck up.

 

Yes, we can only hope for a full-out world war.

Jeebus. Y'all realize this is how the beginning of the doomsday scenario goes, right?

 

yes, and I don't think anyone is hoping for any of this to happen. it's all speculation. The only people who seem to want war are Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Syria says it doesn't, but that apparently doesn't mesh with many citizens of Damascus.

 

OK, the whole thing just freaks me the fuck out.

Israel involved in a war in the Middle East at the same time we are is probably the worst-case foreign policy situation imaginable.

And here we are.

 

It's definitely scary, especially the portions of it that become a self-fulfilling prophecy. There are enough people out there -- on both sides -- who read the situation and think this is the Armageddon battle, and then do their damndest to make it happen. Others, like the guy in Iran (can't spell his name if you spot me the Ah- and the -men, sorry) or bin Laden, see it as a chance to create a new Muslim empire of some sort. And then there's the idiot in Pyongyang, who's just trying to be a big shot and is willing to irradiate Honolulu, Seoul or Tokyo to do it.

And in the middle of it all is the United States, saddled with leadership that's more interested in its own power and making money than leading the country, along with a number of other problems, trying to do the right thing and maintain peace in the valley. All along, taking more crap than it should for it and in some insane eyes actually being portrayed as the bad guy in all of this. I tell ya, some days it just doesn't pay to get out of bed and get involved in Middle East politics.

 

The question isn't who will come to Israel's aid. The question is who will come to Iran and Syria's aid. Israel can take care of itself and has proven that time and time again.

If Iran and Syria keep pushing this the Israelis are just going to say fuck this and start lobbing nukes at both of them.

 

Israel won't hit them with nukes first. I don't think they would go that far. airstrikes yes, i can see that. nukes, not first.