Likely to Move 1,000+ Miles Away. Rent Until Housing Market Cools Off?

The Boston market is the only one where I've bought a home and is so atypical (permanent boom for 30 years, even the Global Financial Crisis only caused a pause, not a collapse, in prices) I cannot give any advice to MileHigh. But way back in '90, we sold one house, bought another, and then the seller reneged on the agreement. Wound up in a condo for a year until we found another place. Did not enjoy it, but we also had two small children in that place.

 

We're in the Houston metro area, and bought in the last six months. And while housing prices are spiking, well, so have rentals - We got bumped about 5 percent from the 2018 asking price to the 2019 price, probably would have gotten bumped in 2020 except it was Covid times when our renewal came up, and if we extended in 2021 we were going to get bumped another 5 percent. Even with the soaring real estate prices, a house payment was going to be close to our monthly rent, so it wasn't a tough decision to buy. When we left New England, it was similar there. Rental and home prices don't correlate perfectly, but there's definitely correlation there.

 

Thanks as always for the replies here.

Lots to think about on my end but, for the first time, I feel like I can to almost "design" my life for the next few years. Wonderfully empowering.

 

I have nothing to add about the housing market/investment angle on this.

I will say, though, that if you ending up moving to a city you don't know well, I HIGHLY recommend renting for a while just so you get a sense of the area and where you might want to live. We rented in a few different areas before we bought just to make sure we knew what kind of neighborhood we wanted and what we were getting into. That's a tough call to make coming in from the outside.

 

Let us know how things end up. Good luck!

 

Congratulations @exmediahack! After seeing many transplants move to Nashville and buy before things got so outrageously expensive, I'm with the "rent first and get to know the place." Agree with @Mngwa that it's equity you won't get back, but you'll also be in a better position to find a place you'll be happy to live in for a decade or more.

 

We got really lucky when we moved to South Carolina — we rented for a year, and then bought the place we were renting. Best of all possible worlds. Lucky timing, certainly, but I’m now living in the house where I plan to live out my remaining decades.

 

Old man view; I don’t try to time a short run market, equities, housing, etc. (even buying my ‘new” used car). Too hard. Question I ask myself is whether in the long run I’ll enjoy the purchase? Will you be happy in the home you find now? For 5+ yrs? IMHO it’s worth it to buy if you’re going to enjoy it.

 

Another thing -'scuse while I put on mah fedora and Dr. Goodall khakis- get to know the culture of the place.

 

I would not cold call Realtors in your destination. I fear they will tell you whatever is going to help them gain a client.

I live in a highly desirable area, and the median sales price is already 5 percent off the all-time high (set in July). But last month’s median was still 44 percent higher than it was 18 months prior. I doubt any semi-desirable place will experience a “popped bubble,” but I’d bet prices continue to dip toward something resembling a zone of sanity spiked by a COVID surcharge.

If you’re looking to buy, I’d recommend looking beyond median sales prices and the comparisons of sales price to assessor’s real market value. Look at the last 18 to 24 months worth of housing inventory and see if there’s a trend. Are more houses coming to market as COVID fears ease? What’s the breakdown of inventory by price tier? What trends are there in the month-to-month sales volume, average days on market and sales price-to-list price ratio?

Yes, renting is throwing away money compared with building equity. But considering all the ancillary costs if you’re buying then selling and then buying again because it turns out a quick choice isn’t working out, it can be close to a wash as to how much money you save or lose by renting. And there’s no guarantee you’ll be able to sell quickly if you decide to (he says as inflation rises).