Maddux, Glavine, Thomas elected to Baseball Hall of Fame; Biggio just misses

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

I think the whole issue of people being left off "solely on baseless suspicion" of PED use is overblown .

As far as I can tell, the only player who is a slam dunk HOFer who didn't get in because of mere suspicion is Mike Piazza. Bagwell had been hurt too, but he's no slam dunk on his record, so it's possible he wouldn't have gotten in anyway on the first ballot.

I don't believe there is any real steroid taint against Biggio. Just because one crackpot says something doesn't mean there's this wave of suspicion hurting him. He almost got in last year and he probably will this year. And I didn't vote for him but it has nothing to do with steroids. I don't think he's a HOFer. I don't think he was quite good enough.

As for everyone else, either there is more than suspicion or they weren't necessarily HOFers anyway.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

The "one crackpot" is an illustration of the issue. The standards being used here are inappropriately low. If you are going to entrust something like this to journalists, it's not unfair to expect them actually be able to back it up if they refuse to vote for somebody based on suspected PED use.

Bagwell is exactly the reason this is an issue. There is no real evidence against him, but as you said, the suspicion is hurting him. For a borderline guy like him, that could be enough to keep a deserving player out of the Hall of Fame. It hasn't happened yet, but he's an example of a player it could happen to.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released


I imagine when it's all said and done, not one deserving candidate will be left out. So what's the big deal if Clemens and Bonds have to wait?

Borderline candidates are still borderline candidates with or with PED suspicions. Even if you take away any suspicions, Bagwell may not have done enough in an offensively-inflated era to warrant enshrinement.

Back to Glavine vs. Mussina for a second. Gotta admit I had no idea how good Mussina's numbers were. Glavine "feels" like a slam-dunk Hall of Famer; Mussina seems like a "Good but not Great" player. The numbers suggest otherwise. I'd be hard-pressed to leave Mussina off the ballot if I were also voting for Glavine.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

It's not only about players having to wait or possibly being kept out unfairly, though that is certainly an issue.

It is about voters misusing and abusing the privilege. Hall of Fame votes are not given out to make statements, yet voters do it constantly. They are not given out to throw punish players for the PED era, yet that is happening as well, often with players who we don't know if they used or not. Even if nobody is kept out, the misuse of Hall of Fame votes warrants criticism.

There are measures that can be taken. The simplest is to require that all voters make their choices public. If a voter wants to leave off every player who has ever faced any suspicion of PED use, no matter how lacking in support that suspicion is, he or she should have to at least stand up to public scrutiny. Want to leave Greg Maddux off your ballot just to ensure that he doesn't get 100 percent of the vote, at least stand by that ballot with the glaring omission on it.

Regarding Bagwell, as others have said, the unsupported suspicions are hurting him. If he doesn't make the Hall of Fame, it won't be for lack of numbers. It won't be because he didn't have enough seasons when he was among the best in the game. It will be because some voters misused their vote and chose to punish a guy for PED use without even knowing for sure that he did it. Of course, that is only my opinion, but the numbers back it up. It is certainly fair to call him borderline, but he belongs and lower percentages now can hurt his cause down the line as well. We've seen it before. There is momentum. Players gain support over time and it eventually brings their vote total high enough, so a few lost votes now can make a difference.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

Jeff Bagwell is not a borderline Hall of Fame candidate. He's the second-best first baseman since World War II. I don't know what more people want from him. He's a hitter whose slash is .297/.408/.540. His OPS+ is 149.

His 10-year stretch from 1994-2003 is really, really good. Like put up against anyone good.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

I was being conservative. The opinion on him seems to be mixed, but overall, I agree with you. People really don't seem to remember just how good he was.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

It wasn't directed at you personally.

The voters haven't been high on Bagwell from the start, which doesn't make sense because of his credentials, so you almost have to believe that nearly a third of the electorate are holding PEDs against him

He got 41.7 percent of the vote on the first try as THE SECOND-BEST PLAYER AT THE POSITION IN THE LAST 70 YEARS.
He got a nice bump to 56 percent the next year, I'm sure thanks to those no first-time guys. But got only 18 more votes last year.

This is his fourth year on the ballot. There is not so huge a difference between Bagwell and Thomas that Bagwell has to wait until at least his fifth try while Thomas is looking to be a lock in the first year, on a ballot that has been a lot tougher than the first two Bagwell faced.

Through 50 ballots, a little less than nine percent tallied, Thomas is at 86 percent. Bagwell's at 66.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released


I probably should have made the distinction that Bagwell's counting stats may not be enough to stand out in an offensively-inflated era. That said, Della's right. Bagwell's 10-year stretch is pretty damn impressive.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

And the worse thing about those counting stats not looking like they measure up is that they are being compared to guys like McGwire and Palmeiro, who are branded with PED stain for an actual reason.

And even if the counting stats are lacking, for first base Bagwell is 10th in runs, 25th in hits, 14th in doubles, 13th in homers, 13th in RBI, 20th in steals (with everyone in front of him playing before 1934), 6th in walks, 7th in batting average for first basemen with at least 9,000 plate appearances, 5th in on-base percentage with at least 9,000 PAs and 5th in slugging for 9,000 PAs and 6th in OPS for 9,000 PAs. His OPS+ for that many PAs is 4th.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

I know. Just saying overall, I agree with you. I primarily call him borderline because there are far too many voters who either don't seem to get how good he was or they are buying into the PED suspicions even though there is no real evidence to back it up.

I'm assuming Key is talking about Bagwell "only" ending up with 449 home runs, but he wasn't just a power hitter. The guy had a career .408 on-base percentage, with over 100 walks seven times. He won an MVP award, finished second once and third once and was Rookie of the Year in 1991. It is also important to note that he played his first nine seasons in the Astrodome, so he spent most of his career in an extreme pitcher's park.

Throw in outstanding defense and 202 career steals, over 30 in a season twice, and Bagwell did a heck of a lot more than hit home runs.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

Stan Musial was the second-best first baseman after World War II.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

Well yes, if a guy who started 65 percent of his games in the outfield can be classified as a first baseman.