Maddux, Glavine, Thomas elected to Baseball Hall of Fame; Biggio just misses

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

That's exactly what ERA+ does, Joe. It adjusts for the league run-scoring environment (which, yes, is inflated by the DH after 1973 and also by the Steroid Era in the 1990s and early 2000s) and also the pitcher's home ballpark (since putting up great numbers at Dodger Stadium is a lot easier than doing it at Coors Field.)

For example, Jamie Moyer's 3.87 ERA in 1999 is 29% better than the league average (giving him a 129 ERA+), while Gary Peter's 3.76 ERA in 1968 is 15% worse than the league average (giving him an 85 ERA+.)

That's also why Pedro Martinez's 1.74 ERA in 2000 is considered by many to be a more impressive feat than Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA in 1968. Gibson's ERA+ was 258, which is 158% better than the NL average of 2.99 that season. Still an incredible feat, mind you, sixth-best in history.

But Martinez's ERA+ was a record-setting 291 ... 191% better than the AL average of 4.91. He was pitching in a much, much tougher environment for pitchers than Gibson or Koufax or Marichal ever did.

And to bring this back full circle, Jack Morris's 3.38 ERA in the rabbit-ball year of 1987 was 26% better than the AL average (126 ERA+). But in 1983, a lower-scoring year, his 3.34 ERA was just 17% better than the AL average (117 ERA+). But his career ERA+ was just 105, 5% better than the AL average.

So even though he does get credit for pitching in Tiger Stadium and he does get credit for pitching with the DH, he still wasn't much better than a league-average pitcher when it comes to actually allowing runs. A quick glance at ERA can tell you that, but ERA+ confirms it even more.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

I wish the privilege could be revoked for continued bad behavior.
That could be votable, as well.
What exactly has Mariotti contributed to the conversation that entitles him to vote on the Hall?

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

For some reason I assumed that had more to do with ballpark adjustments than across eras and leagues and, specifically, DH vs. non-DH.

Makes me look again at Catfish Hunter.

Re: Gibson & Martinez, does ERA+ also account for the changes in the game overall -- use of relief pitching, quality of relief pitching, travel, # of day games, etc.? Does it attempt to capture quality of pitching staff relative to the particular player's rank in the pecking order? As in what his role as an ace and innings-eater might mean to other starters or the bullpen?

I'm seeing that Martinez, for instance, pitched into the 7th inning and beyond in 26 games, for a total of 46 innings, in which his ERA was 2.93. Overall in 2000, he had 4 shutouts and 7 complete games.

Gibson went 7 or more innings in 34 games and logged twice as many innings in that situation (92) as Martinez. His ERA from the 7th on was 1.57. He had 13 shutouts and 28 complete games in 1968. That all seems like pretty compelling stuff in Gibson's favor.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

No, it doesn't do that. ERA+ measures earned runs allowed relative to the league average.

If you want to know about "innings eater," then the stat you're looking for is "innings pitched."

(And I'm not trying to be snarky, seriously. But specific stats measure specific things. if you want to talk about other factors, then we should use other stats that measure those factors. You asked about ERA, so I was using ERA. Now if you want to ask about innings eaters, then we can talk about innings pitched.)

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

That said, ERA+ and many other statistics (league leaders, for instance) do measure a pitcher against his peers when they're all facing the same conditions — like four- or five-man rotations, bullpen usage, cross-country travel, day/night games, etc. That makes it a more apples-to-apples comparison.

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to compare Pedro Martinez's raw number of complete games in 2000 to Bob Gibson's total in 1968. The game was very different, and all those factors you mentioned are part of it. Martinez wasn't expected to have 28 complete games. In contrast, Gibson's 28 complete games didn't even lead the league in 1968 (Marichal had 30.)

But by the same token, Carl Yastrzemski hitting .301 in 1968 is a much different accomplishment than, say, Dante Bichette hitting .331 in 1998. You can't just look at those two raw numbers and say Bichette hit 30 points better than Yaz without considering the context of how (and where) the game was played. Yaz's feat is far, far more impressive, as we all know internally and as is reflected in, for instance, a stat like OPS+.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

The non-Glavine voters are starting to rear their heads. Jack Magruder is the second in as many days. He went with Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Maddux, Palmeiro, Piazza, Sosa, Thomas, Walker

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

Ballot count is just short of triple digits. Based on last year's number of voters, Mussina has cleared 5 percent. Kent is about a third of the way to staying on the ballot.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

The pattern on the non-Glavine voters seem to be people ignoring steroids - both as a mark against hitters & Clemens, and as a mark for pitcherswho had a tougher time pitching in this era. So they love hitters who stack up in terms of numbers against other generations, and are tough on pitchers who don't.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

I think this might have something to do with Glavine being a very visible union man, and representative of the cancelled season and World Series.
He is still not very well-liked in certain corners because of that.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

Given what's been reported about ballots so far, it looks like Piazza will get in next year as it seems more voters are warming up to him. Bagwell might not make it next year, but as with Piazza, more voters seem to be coming around to his case.

In my earlier post, I had forgotten I had become a Raines supporter a couple of years ago and would vote for him if I had a ballot, so it's good to see him rising up in the percentage tallies.

And I'd wager that Clemens and Bonds are getting in at some point, given their percentages thus far.

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

Anyone notice that the only ballots anyone talks about are the "bad" ones?

 

Re: 2014 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot released

Conflict is essential to any good story.