Maddux, Glavine, Thomas elected to Baseball Hall of Fame; Biggio just misses

As I mentioned a few pages back, that much of McGwire's value is tied up in home runs and/or walks makes him not that different from a number of first-ballot Hall of Famers, including Willie Stargell, Reggie Jackson, Ernie Banks and Willie McCovey.

 

Thanks to a special feller on Twitter, Maddux's debut.

For those of a certain era, enjoy this fantastic voyage back in time, 1986.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 R H E
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Astros 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 8 18 1
Cubs 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 7 12 0

Code:

                                                                                             
Batting                 AB R  H RBI BB SO   BA  OPS    WPA  aLI  WPA+   WPA- RE24 PO        A
Davey Lopes  CF          5 1  2   0  0  0 .279 .821  0.032 1.21 0.125 -0.093 -0.4  4  0  2BSB
Charlie Kerfeld  P       0 0  0   0  0  0 .143 .393  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0        0
Larry Andersen  P        0 0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0        0
Dave Smith  P            0 0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0        0
Matt Keough  P           2 0  0   0  0  1 .333 .750 -0.078 1.55 0.000 -0.078 -0.3  0        0
Bob Knepper  P           0 0  0   0  0  0 .099 .222  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0        1
Bill Doran  PH-2B        2 0  0   0  0  0 .273 .729 -0.071 1.40 0.000 -0.071 -0.4  0        1
Jim Pankovits  2B        6 1  1   0  2  0 .275 .709 -0.090 1.63 0.095 -0.184 -0.6  4        2
Julio Solano  P          0 0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0        0
Danny Darwin  P          1 0  0   0  0  1 .000 .000 -0.009 0.35 0.000 -0.009 -0.1  0        0
Phil Garner  3B          3 0  1   0  0  0 .267 .746 -0.032 1.21 0.036 -0.067 -0.2  0        1
Denny Walling  PH-3B     5 1  2   1  0  0 .309 .851  0.336 2.38 0.446 -0.111  1.1  1  0    2B
Glenn Davis  1B          4 1  2   1  1  1 .257 .820  0.158 1.44 0.247 -0.089  1.1  8  0    HR
Dan Driessen  1B         3 1  2   1  0  0 .304 .799  0.334 2.57 0.368 -0.033  1.4  7        0
Kevin Bass  RF           8 1  3   1  0  1 .308 .847 -0.136 1.89 0.177 -0.313 -0.2  3  0 2BGDP
Jose Cruz  LF            8 0  1   1  0  1 .275 .716 -0.205 1.77 0.088 -0.293 -1.1  6  0    2B
Alan Ashby  C            5 1  2   1  0  1 .260 .692  0.053 1.53 0.153 -0.099  0.9 10        0
Robbie Wine  C           3 0  1   0  0  1 .333 .667 -0.032 1.25 0.031 -0.062 -0.3  4        3
Dickie Thon  SS          2 0  0   0  1  1 .233 .625 -0.081 1.37 0.058 -0.139 -0.6  1        4
Craig Reynolds  PH-SS    5 0  0   0  0  1 .257 .641 -0.285 2.21 0.000 -0.285 -1.1  1        4
Nolan Ryan  P            3 0  0   1  0  1 .102 .222 -0.043 1.11 0.005 -0.048 -0.5  0        2
Aurelio Lopez  P         0 0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0        0
Terry Puhl  PH           1 0  0   0  0  0 .236 .621 -0.044 1.79 0.000 -0.044             -0.2
Tony Walker  CF          0 0  0   0  0  0 .227 .712  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0        0
Ty Gainey  CF            0 0  0   0  0  0 .297 .801  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  1        0
Billy Hatcher  PH-CF     4 1  1   1  0  1 .269 .667  0.245 1.80 0.381 -0.136  0.5  4  0    HR
Team Totals             70 8 18   8  4 11 .257 .697  0.052 1.67 2.210 -2.154 -0.9 54       18

Code:

                                                                                               
Batting                 AB R  H RBI BB SO   BA  OPS    WPA  aLI  WPA+   WPA- RE24 PO          A
Dave Martinez  CF        4 0  0   0  0  1 .113 .329 -0.092 0.92 0.000 -0.092 -0.7  2          0
Lee Smith  P             0 0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0          0
Brian Dayett  RF         5 0  1   0  0  1 .111 .349 -0.226 2.83 0.074 -0.300 -0.7  1          0
Ryne Sandberg  2B        7 1  1   0  1  0 .280 .734 -0.095 1.54 0.129 -0.225 -0.4  2  8    CSSH
Jerry Mumphrey  LF-CF    4 0  1   0  0  1 .305 .755  0.066 1.54 0.134 -0.069 -0.1  0          0
Bob Dernier  PR-CF       5 2  1   0  0  0 .211 .554 -0.034 2.91 0.237 -0.270  0.4  2  0    2BSB
Keith Moreland  RF-1B    6 2  2   3  2  0 .273 .711  0.325 2.43 0.568 -0.244  0.9 11  1  HR2BIW
Leon Durham  1B          3 1  1   2  1  1 .254 .771  0.306 2.48 0.354 -0.047  1.4 13  0    HRIW
Chico Walker  PR         0 0  0   0  0            0  0.082 7.30 0.082  0.000        0.2      SB
Frank DiPino  P          0 0  0   0  0  0 .167 .333  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0          0
Rick Sutcliffe  PH       0 0  0   0  0  0 .222 .589  0.104 3.19 0.104  0.000        0.6     HBP
Scott Sanderson  PR      0 0  0   0  0  0 .042 .124  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000                0.0
Manny Trillo  PR-3B      3 0  0   0  0  1 .327 .805 -0.213 2.80 0.000 -0.213 -0.8  1          3
Jody Davis  C            6 0  1   1  1  1 .235 .675 -0.069 2.12 0.154 -0.222 -0.5 11  0      SF
Greg Maddux  PR-P        0 0  0   0  0            0  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0          0
Chris Speier  3B         3 1  2   1  2  0 .290 .845  0.135 2.10 0.172 -0.037  1.2  2  2 HRSB2IW
Guy Hoffman  P           0 0  0   0  0  0 .000 .133  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0          0
Gary Matthews  PH-LF     3 0  1   0  0  1 .252 .818 -0.073 2.32 0.055 -0.127 -0.3  1          0
Shawon Dunston  SS       7 0  1   0  1  2 .252 .694 -0.251 2.51 0.094 -0.346 -1.1  6          8
Jamie Moyer  P           1 0  0   0  0  1 .067 .330 -0.018 0.72 0.000 -0.018 -0.2  0          1
Terry Francona  PH       1 0  0   0  0  0 .245 .607 -0.035 1.38 0.000 -0.035               -0.2
Ron Davis  P             0 0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0          0
Thad Bosley  PH-LF       4 0  0   0  0  2 .264 .699 -0.296 2.96 0.000 -0.296 -1.3  1          0
Steve Trout  P           0 0  0   0  0  0 .179 .405  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0          0
Ron Cey  PH              0 0  0   0  1  0 .278 .903  0.047 2.29 0.047  0.000                0.2
Dave Gumpert  P          0 0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  0.000 0.00 0.000  0.000  0.0  0          0
Mike Martin  PH-C        1 0  0   0  0  0 .000 .200 -0.111 4.36 0.000 -0.111 -0.4  1          0
Team Totals             63 7 12   7  9 12 .190 .662 -0.448 2.31 2.204 -2.652 -1.9 54         23

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/9/2014.

 

And the pitching lines ...

Code:

                                                                              
Pitching                IP  H R ER BB SO HR  ERA BF GSc IR IS    WPA  aLI RE24
Nolan Ryan               7  4 3  3  1  5  2 3.72 26        61 -0.052 1.03  0.5
Aurelio Lopez            1  0 0  0  0  1  0 2.79      3  0  0  0.106 1.41  0.5
Charlie Kerfeld          0  1 1  1  0  0  0 2.84      1  0  0 -0.134 3.46 -0.4
Larry Andersen H (4)   0.1  0 0  0  1  0  0 3.61      2  1  0 -0.126 5.21 -0.3
Dave Smith BS (5)      0.2  0 0  0  1  1  0 2.40      3  2  1 -0.042 5.34  0.2
Matt Keough              5  1 0  0  3  4  0 4.31     19  0  0  0.682 2.58  2.5
Bob Knepper              2  2 0  0  2  0  0 2.76     10  0  0  0.273 3.04  1.0
Julio Solano BS (1)    0.1  3 3  3  1  0  1 6.83      5  0  0 -0.594 2.04 -3.0
Danny Darwin W (8-9)   1.2  1 0  0  0  1  0 3.51      6  1  0  0.332 2.91  1.0
Team Totals             18 12 7  7  9 12  3 3.50 75  61  4  1  0.445 1.67  1.9

Code:

                                                                            
Pitching              IP  H R ER BB SO HR  ERA BF GSc IR IS    WPA  aLI RE24
Jamie Moyer            6  9 3  3  2  2  1 5.32 27        42 -0.087 1.34 -0.0
Ron Davis              2  1 0  0  0  0  0 8.06      7  0  0  0.140 1.26  1.0
Lee Smith              1  2 1  1  1  1  0 2.95      6  0  0 -0.302 2.47 -0.5
Frank DiPino           2  0 0  0  0  3  0 4.23      6  0  0  0.273 1.80  1.0
Guy Hoffman            3  1 0  0  0  2  0 4.30     10  0  0  0.409 1.85  1.5
Steve Trout            2  1 0  0  0  1  0 4.94      7  0  0  0.273 2.12  1.0
Dave Gumpert           1  3 3  3  1  1  0 3.78      7  0  0 -0.460 1.99 -2.5
Greg Maddux L (0-1)    1  1 1  1  0  1  1 9.00      4  0  0 -0.301 1.23 -0.5
Team Totals           18 18 8  8  4 11  2 4.00 74  42  0  0 -0.055 2.31  0.9

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/9/2014.

 

Maybe by regardless they mean "if he doesn't use PEDs he doesn't have that HR total or OPS+ numbers that would overcome for his lack of other baseball skills." ? Instead of "If we didn't know he used PEDs but put up the same numbers he wouldn't get into the HoF anyway." Not knowing what you're talking about, I don't know if that's true. Just spitballing.

 

Well, there are people who write that they don't consider PED use in their votes who nonetheless don't vote for McGwire. Buster Olney is one, although he wrote that he voted for Rafael Palmeiro (132 OPS+) instead of McGwire (163) because Palmeiro was a better player. Um, OK. Jayson Stark dropped him from his ballot because he determined that he was unelectable.

Where are the ballots actually tracked? I'm sure there are others.

 

Fair enough. Most of what I've read has basically been "he's only got HoF numbers because of PEDs." But I haven't made a case study of it.

Though I WOULD like to point out that it's theoretically possible to be a better player and have a lower OPS+. Palmero did manage to post a better career oWAR and dWAR than McGwire. I haven't dug into their stats more than a cursory look at BBR. So I'm definitely not ready to defend Olney's claim. But it might not have been insane.

 

Peter Abraham, who only voted for eight a year ago, writes that he doesn't consider PED use, other than devaluing home runs because they came cheaply during the era:

"McGwire was very good at hitting home runs and getting on base, two critical skills. But when you compare the duration of his career and the peak of his career to other first baseman, he is not a lock for the Hall, the steroids issue aside."

OPS+: 163

OPS peak years:
1995: 200
1996: 196
1997: 170
1998: 216
1999: 176
2000: 203 (89 games)

Peak OPS+ for a sampling of HOF first basemen:
Hank Greenberg: 172
Harmon Killebrew: 177
Eddie Murray: 159
Tony Perez: 158

Peter Abraham's case against McGwire is absolute nonsense.

 

Something to consider: Why is it we have to be so focused on numbers and statistics when talking about a player being worthy of the HOF?

Even if you take PEDs out of the equation, you still have hitters' parks, expansion diluting rosters, differences in how pitchers are utilized, training methods that were never used previously (and that have nothing to do with PEDs) and other factors that are making it easier for baseball players to hit more home runs.

In other words, is baseball like football, in which certain statistical milestones that were once considered HOF worthy might not be any longer?

 

Yes. That's why we use things like ERA+ and OPS+. It's why we consider batting titles and home run titles and Cy Young awards.

 

And if you want to argue that McGwire is a better baseball player than any of those listed, well, I just really feel sorry for you.

 

Of course not. But it shows you that he was a prodigiously productive hitter, even in an era of prodigious hitters.

 

Great--and Bonds is 4th all time. Jesus, pick a side of the argument and stick with it. You're all over the place like projectile vomit.