MLB 2014 season thread

Very good column here on Williams' bungling of the seventh inning. I honestly think Panik surprised him by getting a hit off a left-hander, and he thought Thornton would be facing Posey with nobody on base, so when Panik did reach base Williams didn't have the righty ready in time so the lefty had to go ahead and face Posey. That's a mistake.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/matt-williams-nationals-manager-nlds-game4-bullpen-100814

Williams said they did it that way because that's the way they've handled the seventh inning all year. He said the same thing after Saturday, they went to Storen instead of sticking with Zimmerman because that's what they've done in the ninth. Duh, that's the point -- it isn't the regular season!

In fairness, Bochy's love affair with Hunter Strickland almost cost the Giants dearly. But that's a blind spot that will be corrected. Williams seems to have a fundamental lack of clarity about postseason managing.

 

Great column. You would think that Williams would understand the win-or-go-home game mentality and have damned his convention in favor of preserving the tie, unless he had visions of another 18-inning affair, but even then, you have to get there first.

I want to see how Williams learns from this and if he will over correct if faced with this again. Nationals are a good team but just ran into a more seasoned club. It was a great series that I really hope doesn't define Williams.

As for Strickland, how do you not bring in Affeldt to face Harper in stead of Strickland? You saw what Harper did to him in Game 1, why open yourself up to failure again?

 

Please explain with statistical reasoning, other than 20/20 hindsight. Thanks.

 

My pure armchair guess is: Bochy wants Strickland to be the closer. They have gone almost the whole season without a true one, and Strickland is the first guy Bochy has had since Wilson who has true closer stuff. So this is the audition. He pitched three times in the series, and all three times were maximum pressure.

 

Joba went 4.40, 2.83, 4.35, 4.93 as a reliever for the Yankees. If anything, the Tigers got more out of him than they had any right to expect.

Soria's last good year before this year was 2010 - he had an ERA over 4 in 2011 (albeit a barely-above average ERA+), missed all of 2012 and pitched 23 innings in 2013. He was no sure thing to stay healthy and be a shutdown bullpen guy, particularly at $4 million a year.

The Tigers were a bit unlucky that Nathan fell off the proverbial cliff this year, but he's 39 years old and had major arm trouble in the not-too-distant past. He was brilliant in 2013, but can anyone really say they were surprised that he collapsed? And they paid him $10 million this year.

It's not hindsight to say that the Joba/Soria/Nathan back end was a high-risk bunch. Spending a combined $16.5 million on those three when you can build a quality bullpen for a fraction of that cost was an avoidable mistake.

 

Before series was talking with a fellow Yankee fan who said 'they gave up on Joba.' Had to remind him that Joba was shit in 13. His whip was 1.74, guys like that are basically used when the lead or deficit is 5 or more. The Yankees should never let him try to become a starter. As a rookie, he was a successful reliever and mostly used one pitch.

 

Nathan's arm issues his last year in Minnesota (2011) were negated by one solid and one excellent year in Texas the past two seasons. No one could say with certainty (and no one did, from what I can recall) this was waiting to happen because of arm problems. His K/9 rate and K/BB rate in TX were quite good, although in 2012 he did walk more batters than he had historically. If someone went on the record predicting this dumpster fire from Game 1 before the season or after the signing, I'd like to see it because I sure as shit don't remember it.

Soria's numbers with the Rangers this year appeared to show him in rebound - he was pretty much the best "available" closer/late innings man out there at the deadline. His shoulder/pectoral/whatever muscle issues could potentially have been predicted based on his more-recent injury history from last year, but data from this season wouldn't have pointed to that.

I never figured Chamberlain into this because he was signed to a cheap one-year deal as a hopeful reclamation project. Paid off big in the first half of the year, but he was awful post-All Star break throwing nothing but off-speed pitches that opponents sat on and teed off. Why Ausmus continued to trot him out late season/post season as his "8th inning guy" was and is a complete mystery. A case of a potentially smart young manager in completely over his head in the post-season when you have to be a bit more creative and innovative, and not just rely on "what worked early on".

All of their bullpen had guys with a history of throwing good to excellent heat mixed with the wicked breaking/off-speed stuff that kept batters off balance and generated lots of swings and misses. The heat got extinguished (at the same time) which exposed them all. But my point is that no one that I can recall predicted at the time the moves were made that each would turn into a complete mess.

The choices were not bad, based on evidence. But they all flopped spectacularly at the same time. The only thing I could point to with these moves Dombrowski made is that all were aging arms and POTENTIALLY he could have gotten burned by one, but it turned out all three became complete messes. And I don't give a rat's ass about the money spent, unless DD/Ilitch now go cry poor and drop talent to pay for this (a la the worthless Fister deal that produced jack squat this year on a team built to win now). But statistically I cannot see how anyone can claim these bullpen acquisitions were bad choices.

 

I believe Soria was in steep decline/injured again this year in Texas and the numbers were just not bearing it out yet.
He has no late movement on the fastball anymore.
A shame a great reliever gave his best years to bad teams.

 

Didn't witness it as I can't watch as much baseball as in my past life. But looking at his numbers in TX this year (.870 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 10.5 K/BB) pitching more innings through July than he did in all of 2013 looked like a guy who had rebounded a bit. But I'll defer to those who saw him more than me with the Rangers.

Or maybe Ron Washington was just a freakin' genius at getting the absolute most of out his late-inning bullpen.

 

One more note- the Yankees have been known for abusing relievers, Torre in particular.
Also known for having overhyped prospects given the market in which they compete.
Joba was never as great or as bad as people thought.

 

Well, what did you think of the breaking ball he threw Young with the bases loaded? Doesn't seem like a guy confident in his heater.
Dombrowski could have fixed his bullpen or the middle of the diamond at the deadline and did neither. He went shopping for something the team didn't really need, as Beane did.

 

I think with Romo's struggles earlier this year and Casilla not really being a great answer—though a serviceable one—Bochy is looking hard at Strickland. There's been talk around the Bay that's where the Giants want to go in the future. And, again, you're right that there is no better teaching moment than to throw the guy into the most pressure packed situation you can get him into without fear of losing the game on one pitch. But knowing Harper loves coming out of his shoes on every pitch—especially for hard fastballs—and how everyone else were giving him a steady diet of breaking stuff to get him out, maybe Affeldt would have been better there.

Looking back on the series, the Giants pitchers did a good job at containing Harper. He drove in or scored five of the Nationals' nine runs but three of them were off solo homers. He only had one hit of note with a runner on base: the double that scored the Nats' first run.