MLB 2018-19 Offseason Thread

It's possible that the offer was there for a while, and Machado was hoping a more desirable team that would match it.

 

Teams are reluctant to sign 26 year old superstars to big deals. The opt out is not a benefit to the team it used to be.

 

Padres should have given themselves an opt-out after five, too.

 

Possibly.

I'm sure they would have loved to. Machado would have gone to the White Sox.

 

Didn’t think it would be the Padres. But, as noted by others, they could be very good soon with that farm system and a pitching upgrade.

And the Padres are going back to the classic brown uniforms next season. Had to seal the deal for Machado!

 

If he is on a pace where he will opt out, he doesn't have much trade value. If he isn't on pace, well, he is worth nothing. You are proposing some sweet spot where he is playing well enough to have value in a trade, but then falls off a cliff after being traded so he doesn't opt out.

[EDIT] And in the latter scenario, not a thing changes for the Padres once he leaves. Opt-outs are always in the player's favor.

 

They may agree to them because it lets them get a discount on the total money, but certeris parabis, opt-outs are always very good for the player and very bad for the team.

You’re chopping off all the upside (the player outplays his contract and you’re getting a bargain) but keep all the downside. It’d be like playing blackjack but you only get paid out half when you win. You can’t say “but if I win I’m still ahead and if i lose I would have lost anyway, so how is it bad?”

 

In the long run that might have turned out to be a better deal.

 

So the Padres sign Machado at 10/300, that ought to make the recent whiners about teams tanking go away for a while. Nats overpaid to get Corbin Harper is positioned to do better than Machado.

 

Why wouldn’t he have value if he’s playing well enough where he’d opt out? If the Padres aren't competitive after four seasons and he's hitting 35 HRs with a .900 OPS, there will absolutely be a contender willing flip a few prospects to SD for a full season of Machado.

I'm not assuming he won't opt out. I am convinced he will opt out under almost any circumstance in which he is healthy during Year 5. I'm assuming his decline will begin sometime around his age 32/33 or 33/34 season, and the Padres will be glad he's already gone, even if they miss out on a year or two of strong production after he opts out.

Obviously, opt outs are in the players' favor — I didn't think that was up for debate — but they have benefits for the club as well, particularly a low-payroll club like the Padres. I think the Padres will be ecstatic if Machado plays well enough over the next five seasons to opt out and they'll be happy to let him go when he does. It's a win all the way around for them.

 

Yeah, everyone assumed Kershaw would opt out as recently as last offseason, and then he got hurt again.

 

I can just see Harper ending up in Wrigley, thereby leaving the Phillies with their dicks in their hands once again.