MLB 2018 regular season thread

Twitter is all that’s keeping me sane as the Dodgers continue to implode

 

True. Paxton is good, but he's not Randy Johnson. And he's on the DL. King Felix right now also isn't as good 1995 Tim Beclher
as ridiculous as that sounds.

 

Hot take.

 

That’s not at all what people think when they look xFIP or SIERA.

 

Urena got saved by getting dumped.
He might wear one in the spine if hes still in there.

 

Last time I saw something that obvious was the whole Lackey v Kinsler mess.
Lackey did last 2 pitches though.

 

That’s literally the definition of xFIP — how good a pitcher would be if he gave up a different number of home runs than he gives up.

 

Why is that? Because home runs are considered to be random?

 

Can you put a player in waivers if he has a no trade clause? The new team takes his contract. Strasburg

 

Yeah, and subject to fluctuation. See, from 2009 through 2016, Kershaw’s HR/FB% was around 5.0. But if it was around 10.0, he wouldn’t have been as good.

Cool stat.

 

… will be fine, assuming the neurological issue in his neck is resolved. Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg could start against the Phillies next week

 

That’s an intentionally obtuse way to look at the stat and it’s still not what people say or think when they use it. I’m not going to bother parsing it because I know you have your mind is made up about it’s usefulness, or lack thereof.

And, not for anything, but you’re complaining that it relies on assuming a different number of home runs, yet you are comparing him to Scherzer assuming his numbers would be the same “if he had enough innings to qualify.”

Do yourself a favor and don’t compare Rodriguez to Scherzer anymore. The fact that he doesn’t have enough innings to qualify isn’t a side note in the comparison, it completely invalidates it.

Look at what Scherzer did compared to Rodriguez in his first 80IP this season:
Scherzer: 80, 15 er (1.68 ERA), 120k, 19bb, 6hr
Rodriguez: 80, 20 er (2.25), 65k, 19bb, 4 hr

Was there any reason to think at the time that Scherzer would allow more than double the amount over earned runs over his next 80 innings? Yes, there was. His FIP and SIERA did not support that he’d continue pitching to a 1.68 ERA.

The bottom line is that when you look at the total picture presented by Rodriguez’s stats, there’s good reason to believe regression is coming. Believe it or don’t, but there is a reason MLB front offices are using these stats.