MLB '24 Regular Season Thread

Angels thought they could sneak putting Rendon on the IL past us. Made it 14 games between injuries

 

Every contender/division leader has gone through a rough patch this year. After everything looked so top heavy early on, the length and flow of the season wins again. The only teams above .600 now are the Phillies and Guardians at .607. That's part of the reason the deadline was such a dud as far as big names go. Also, saw a tweet referenced from my old pal Travis Sawchick that noted that zero top-100 prospects were flipped at the deadline this year. Teams tried to fill in the margins and make incremental gains but no one was trading the farm for anyone. That'll happen when there are only seven teams out of 30 that are truly out of it. And when you have what you had last year in the Diamondbacks barely making the playoffs and getting all the way to the World Series.

The more I think about it, I would have been irate had the O's flipped Holliday in a Skubal deal. Skubal guaranteed nothing. Holliday is a 20-year-old who, yes, had a rough first patch with the big club. But so did Gunnar Henderson. So did, uh, Cal Ripken. So some patience is in order. Excited to see what he can do in his return.

 

I don't think there is any way they have included Holliday in the deal. But when you look at their top 30 list, four of the top 10 and six of the top 20 are outfielders. Seven of the top 20 are pitchers and six of the 30 are at least 24 or 25.

There are enough combinations, based on what is already at the major league level, that they could have found four or five to package.

Taking pitcher out of the equation, if you look at the lineup and assume going forward it would have Rutschman, Henderson, Holliday, Westburg, Cowser, Kjerstad, you only have three spots open, depending on if you resign Santander, what you think of Mountcastle and how much Jimenez fits in following the trade.

That could mean there are no slots to fill, so why not use those prospects to give you an above average No. 2 in Skubal that bumps Rodriguez to third and keeps Suarez at four and lets Rogers or whomever fight it out for the last spot?

 

A potential Skubal for Holliday trade all comes down to "win now" or "win later."

Before Riley Greene's injury, the Tigers were on an 80-win pace with Skubal and Flaherty. Even if Carpenter and Torkelson return to form in 2025, Parker Meadows learns how to hit breaking pitches and Jace Jung can play a passable third base, GM Scott Harris is looking at a team that probably maxes out at 85-88 wins, good enough to get into the playoffs but not good enough to advance.

Javy Baez is dead money with a pitcher's OPS. Holliday might solidify shortstop in Detroit for the rest of the decade while Harris goes and finds more pitching to open up the team's window of contention by 2026. Jackson Jobe, Max Clark and perhaps Kevin McGonigle would be close to ready by then.

On the other hand, the Orioles have 23-year-old Gunnar Henderson, with 28 homers and a 165 OPS+. And a potential 20-year-old version of Gunnar Henderson at AAA who is blocked at shortstop (but should be on their roster). If Corbin Burnes is the best starter in the American League, Tarik Skubal is No. 1A.

Do you need two Gunnar Hendersons or two Corbin Burnes to improve your chances of making the World Series the next three years? That's where Baltimore's front office had to fish or cut bait. If I was the O's, I'd do exactly what they did. Future Holliday is worth more than future Skubal, at this moment in time. Buyer's remorse is real unless it buys you a ring.

If Dave Dombrowski was on the Baltimore side of that deal, he'd have made it happen because he's always been a "win now" guy.

 

You nailed everything there with the exception that I don't think Albert Suarez sees another start in Baltimore.

 

Baltimore most reminds me of the Cleveland Indians of the 1990s. They have five or six guys with HOF potential and more good hitters to spare and not enough pitching. Eventually you have to trade talent. Money, egos and talent misallocation eventually demands it. For their sake, I just hope they get more for their bumper crop than Cleveland got for Sexson, Giles, Burnitz, Casey and Kent and don’t turn down their Wright/Colon for Pedro deal. You can defuse a dynasty by making the deals you shouldn’t and turning down the ones you should.

Windows open and close frightfully fast. Ask the Cubs. They were the last team that had a young group of hitters that reminded me of those 90s Indians. The Cubs didn’t get aggressive enough and watched the league quickly innovate around them and left them with an aging pitching staff.

Baltimore should be aggressive in getting its ace sooner rather than later.

 

There's too much fear in "overpaying" for proven talent with prospects. Prospects haven't done anything yet. Proven talent has.

And there's nobody in Baltimore who is definitively reaching the end of their window.

 

Couple of things ... from everything I was reading, Detroit really didn't want to deal Skubal anyway, and it was going to take a ridiculous package, like Holliday and some major league pieces (Mountcastle or Mullins), plus more prospects, to even make the discussion happen. That's just a lot to me.

Secondly, Holliday is going to be slotted in at second for the foreseeable future, especially with Mateo likely done for the season. Urias is a great utility piece who can play a lot of positions, but he probably shouldn't be starting on a daily basis. If they think Holliday is up for good, Norby was expendable. He may end up being a star in Miami. I'm not sure he'd ever get that chance in Baltimore. Stowers is a classic 4A guy, so I'm not as worried about losing him.

 

They're like 4-10 since sweeping the Dodgers three weeks ago. It's angering.

 

I'm not as questioning of the Orioles' moves as this sounds. I think Elias has earned the benefit of the doubt, to at least give them time to see if these moves worked. In fact, I'm especially hopeful that the two Philly pickups really shored up the bullpen, and could even softly usher Kimbrel into the background. Seranthony has looked great, and I've always liked Gregory Soto.

The one thing that worries me with Holliday, though, is that if he's not ready this time, it's going to mess up his mind AND everyone's perception considerably more than it did the first time. I sure hope he has a better idea at the plate now.

 

Oh, and Holliday hits a grand slam in his first game back. Good start!

 

I'd forgotten it was on. What happened to Westburg?