MLB '24 Regular Season Thread

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while recovering from Tommy John surgery

 

I recall this discussion on this site

 

Thanks. I had forgotten that WAR takes everything into account, including defense.
Is it accurate to say that the formula for WAR thinks relatively little of the stolen base?

 

The way I understand it, WAR's offense calculations are based scoring probability so any advance on base is good. The issue with the steal is getting caught is much worse than advancing a base. According to pieces I read years ago, players need to steal at a 75-80% range to add value. The numbers change with different scoring levels.

 

He has been mindbogglingly good too. To have a 1.96 ERA in 73 major-league innings when he never had one lower than 3.13 in the minors (when the most innings he ever worked in a season was 63) is staggering. He's about to set a Cleveland record for most strikeouts in a season by a reliever, which is pretty impressive. (He's not close to better than Clase, though, but your point about the leverage is spot-on).

 

Ohtani is now 51-of-55 in steals, which is also absurd. That's 92.72%. If he can go 2-for-2 the rest of the way, he'll have the second-highest success rate for players with ≥ 50 steals in a season. Record is 96.23% by Max Carey of the 1922 Pirates and second is 92.86% by Jacoby Ellsbury (52 for 56) in 2013.

 

I humbly withdraw my argument for Francisco Lindor over Ohtani for MVP. It was the information I had at the time. Ohtani just a DH and not pitching. Lindor a star on offense and a Gold Glove defender at shortstop. And carrying the Mets.

Ohtani is generational and a player you’re happy you get to witness in real time.

Management regrets the error.

MV-Fucking-P for Ohtani.

 

Being a DH is also a drag on WAR. It might be a negative factor.

 

I think maybe his on-base percentage might be more of a factor. They ML average is .312 and he's at .371 compared to Judge, who is at .455. But all that math is tough to understand

 

As a Facebook friend noted, on top of everything else Ohtani did, he got thrown out at third trying to stretch a double into a triple, lest he would have hit for the cycle.

 

I think it's the biggest negative on the board like -12 or -15. DH and corner outfield are the areas that really get dinged in WAR

 

I don't want to start a stats argument at all, but given the relative importance of hitting vs. fielding, that strikes me as a baseline error. "Good field, no hit" has always been a pejorative phrase. If what Ohtani's done doesn't contribute the most of any individual to team wins, well, I have spent a lifetime watching baseball without seeing it.