Money Ball the movie

Not a bust compared to the others. If he was passed over because the old-time scouts failed to see past his build to realize his ability and Beane knew that his ability = solid major league career then that is a bust.

 

Beane thought he was worth a 35th pick. No more, no less.

 

But Beane could have had him later in the draft, no?

If you are fantasy drafting, for comparison, picking a sleeper in the first round wasn't a good idea even if that sleeper blossoms as anticipated.

 

but if he's on no one's radar you could wait until the 50th round and maybe take someone who other teams want.

 

Because he was on no one's radar, they were able to pay him significantly less than they would have had to have pay a more traditional 35th pick.

That was pretty much the entire point. Beane thought he could get a solid draft for a fraction of the cost of a normal draft. And he was right.

 

The difference is that in fantasy drafts, you don't have to pay them.

Signing bonus matters as much, if not more, than draft position in MLB. Outside of sure-fire picks like Harper, how much you are willing to spend matters a lot more than where you are picking.

 

yes and if he was on no one's radar and could've dropped to the 5th round they could've paid him even less. i guess they still have to take someone 35th and pay that guy but if the guy is on no one's radar that means they could've taken him later.

 

Good point. Now I get it. There has been a lot of stories the last few years about how the best use of money in baseball is to spend it on the draft and controllable low-price players, as the Red Sox have done.

The draft is really the great equalizer and why baseball doesn't need a salary cap as much as football and basketball, where first-round draft picks are paid veteran wages right off the bat and contribute right off the bat.

 

I don't want this to come across as an all-purpose defense of Moneyball. I don't think it's aged well at all, Lewis was clearly prone to massive hyperbole, and I don't think Beane looks likely to ever reproduce even a fraction of his old success consistently.

If anything, it seems as if a few years ago, scouting and development became the new inefficiency and we are seeing some teams absolutely clean up in that regard. Modern statistical analysis was able to inform how scouts do their job, to reshape it, but not eliminate it. Beane was a passionate guy in the right place at the right time, but he doesn't seem to have the chops to really innovate now that half the league has taken "his" ideas and improved on them.

But "Har har, Jeremy Brown was a bust" is not an accurate criticism of the book or the philosophy.

 

you do in auction drafts.

 

Yeah, but I think Rick's right here. You have to take somebody with the 35th pick and pay him something. I don't think you can just pass. Beane probably thought that the options available weren't worth slot.

The problem here, if I remember right, is that Lewis went the next step further and blew up Jeremy Brown into the next Johnny Bench.

 

You answered your own question. They had a ton of high draft picks and a limited budget. They thought they could find guys that fit their picks of similar potential to those picked around them for a fraction of the regular cost. They were right.