Muh Muh Muh My Corona (virus)

Good chance this is true, virus or no virus.

 

Click this, scroll down, watch the data viz and see if you still think that: U.S. Virus Cases Climb Toward a Third Peak

 

And the weather will eventually force people who can't help but mingle among themselves inside, where the chances of contamination are greater.

 

That's the thing that worries me about this winter.

What are people going to do when dining outdoors stops becoming a possibility?

 

Yep, still think it. Again, there’s something very misleading about using raw case totals to compare the time when testing capacity was measured in hundreds to now when we run over a million per day

 

Like the virus, fire will be with us forever but we’ve developed mitigation efforts to contain and control it. Hmmm....

 

So your theory is that if behavior is identical, two otherwise similar populations with 0% infected and 25% already infected will have identical transmission rates?

like i said, the phrase “herd immunity” has become so politicized and stretched that it’s lost all meaning. If we are being technical, it only applies to vaccine-induced immunity anyway. Even if 100% of people got it today and developed antibodies tomorrow, it wouldn’t be herd immunity under any definition epidemiologists would have used a year ago before their whole field got thrust into the spotlight.

 

It should also be noted that immunity from vaccination is distributed more or less randomly, whereas immunity from infection naturally flows to the people whose behavior leads them to the highest likelihood of being infected. So the percentage you would need to effectively lower transmission rates below 1 *is* lower through infection than through immunization. The concept is called “heterogeneity of susceptibility” and a number of peer-reviewed papers have firmly established it in the last few months.

Certainly not low enough to make it a desirable outcome, and we don’t know for sure what the number is unless we actually achieve it, but I’ve seen most experts coalescing around something like 50% being somewhere in the ballpark.

 

At this point, you are blindly copy-pasting 70% correct talking points without actually responding to anything being said.

 

I am typing this from an icu waiting room at the above mentioned Univ of Utah hospital and I’m being told by staff that they’ve opened a previously empty floor and made it into a COVID wing. All staff are working 12 on / 12 off and “we can’t keep up.”
And yes, there is a ventilator wait list.