Muh Muh Muh My Corona (virus)

Rick, that's not accurate. California shut down more than many, then opened up more than most, so now they are again shutting down. Actually, here in Mass. is a better example, albeit from a lower baseline. Masks are mandatory ($300 fine in my town if no mask in public), no bars, real limits on retail. And yet from 100-150 cases a day around my 6/30 birthday, we're up to 5K a day. We're one of the "good" ones and it only goes so far. Damn virus is a tough opponent.

 

If California stayed shut, you would have a point.

 

They shut down a lot more than most others. There’s not a lot of correlation right now between how strongly a state has shut down and how bad they are now.

The virus isn’t a poison gas that expands to fill the room if you leave a single crack. Mitigation efforts should have a cumulative effect.

Something still isn’t adding up about our understanding of how the virus spreads. Shutting down mass gatherings like sporting events and theme parks alone should have taken a big chunk out of it. Throw in masks, testing, and restrictions on bars and indoor dining.

If transmission is *still* above 1.0 despite all that, something isn’t adding up. It could be that the native transmission rate is higher than we think, but if that were true then 1) it should have spread way further than it did in Jan-March before we reacted and 2) places like Florida that have removed most restrictions should be much worse off than they are, and 3) the household attack rate (percentage of people who live with a known case) should be much higher than what has been observed.

The other possibility is that many of these measures just aren’t very effective. I think this explains it better. Although there are edge cases that act as counterexamples, most spread doesn’t come in passing contact in public. There are two scenarios where spread occurs: prolonged sharing of an indoor, unventilated space; and close-quarters sharing of direct breath for several minutes.

If you’ve already got people wearing a mask in public, and you’ve already shut down the really egregious things like indoor dining and bars and small exercise areas, then there’s just not that much public spread left to mitigate. Most of your remaining spread is coming from essential work and private socializing.

 

Private socializing and people in the workplace spreading it to each other when they eat together.

 

In my opinion, most of the masks I see out there in the wild are flimsy, cotton-fabric...and many of them are worn incorrectly.

It's sorta like using sunscreen. An SPF of 15 is better than no sunscreen at all, but you'll still get burned in an hour unless you use SPF30 and reapply. People need SPF-N95 masks!

 

I believe the proliferation of sports over the past couple of months has greatly contributed to the firestorm of infections. Common sense says so.

 

Sports and everything else after pandemic fatigue set in. People got slack, and many of them got pissy if that was pointed out, so add defiance and stir.

 

I'm not saying you're wrong but your comment made it seem like we tried lockdowns and the rising cases were despite them. They're not. We reopened a lot of things and people got lax in a lot of ways. Now our ICUs are dangerously close to running out of beds so the governor is trying to put restrictions on things that put people in closer contact and imposing a curfew. Sadly, the people in the reddist parts of the state will ignore all of that and do what they want while law enforcement turns a blind eye to all of it.

 

From someone who has lived there and here ... you're not wrong.

 

Yup. Also, schools are open. Kids may not be getting sick, but they're spreaders. Every district in my area has had cases exponentially increase since September. I know there were some studies that said schools weren't spreading it, but they may have been premature.

Also, just to reiterate, people may be wearing masks to the grocery store, but they're then having friends over without masks.

Look at how fast it spread through the Ravens locker room. Now how many high school teams are playing without the level of testing and scrutiny of the NFL? Add in soccer and volleyball teams, dance and cheer, matching band and school theater groups.

How many workplaces are truly enforcing masks and social distancing? I got work done on my car recently. When I picked it up and again when I dropped it off, I was the only one wearing a mask.

There's a lot less adherence to the mask and social distancing guidelines than people want to admit.

 

I think private socialization has climbed exponentially since school began and that's likely the culprit. I see gatherings in my neighborhood all the time. I have some friends who, frankly, I'm shocked haven't gotten it yet. And I see people, all the time, eating inside restaurants. What data we do have shows that's one of the risky things to do. And I do think sports has contributed to it.