Muh Muh Muh My Corona (virus)

Good to hear.

My wife just got her second shot of the Pfizer vaccine on Friday. She was pretty sore and had a bit of a fever the first 24 hours afterward, but is doing fine today.

 

I'm part of a state program that provides for severely disabled people to have paid caregivers, often family members, so that they don't have to go live in a support home or institution. Technically, my son is my employer, I'm the employee, and the state pays for it.

I got an e-mail a couple of days ago from the program office that said that caregivers are considered health-care workers with direct contact with patients, so we are in Tier 1A, and we are heavily recommended to get the shot. There was an app to download, you put in your information and check for appointment availability. It must update weekly, because the first few days said "all appointments are booked, please check tomorrow" but today they had open appointments every day this week.

 

Good luck. Hope you are feeling better Mr. Stain.

 

I got tested for antibodies this week and was positive. So I deservedly go to the end of the line.

Ordinarily I would spike the football and say FUCK YOU COVID while wagging my legs like Billy White Shoes Johnson, but there are way too many people suffering. Last late February I caught it at a funeral before anyone thought COVID was here.

 

Done and done.

It’s set up in a large parking lot. There was a small line to get in, but lots of people directing traffic and keeping things moving.

Checked my ID, QR appointment code on the app and pay stub to prove I’m a health care worker. Then I waited for a tent to open up. A nurse asked me a few questions, then jabbed me so fast I barely felt it.

they write down the exact time on your card, then there’s a bunch of chairs set up outside the tents where you check in and they don’t let you out for 15 minutes. Card says I can make my second appointment after 28 days. It was actually the moderna vaccine

 

Ape has killed ape! Well, maybe not yet ... but couldn't resist.

 

We should be reaching peak covid before the end of the month. Could be any day now, could be a few weeks.

Even as we set records, we've been seeing fairly small week over week growth, reflective of a transmission rate somewhere very close to 1 but still above it. It's just been building up steadily for so long that the result is huge.

Using covid19-projections' model, about 75% of the population is still susceptible. We're infecting about 1.5% of the population each week and vaccinating another 1-2% at the current pace. Adjust that downward for overlap and the vaccine not being 100% effective, and you're still reducing that susceptible pool by about 3.5% every week.

So even if we maintain the exact same behavior as we did in December, we'd still see cases begin to shrink by the end of January. And since vaccinations can be focused toward high-risk populations, we should see hospitalizations shrink even faster than cases do.

The two potential wrenches in these works are 1) People might become even more lax in their behavior as pandemic fatigue and vaccination excitement kicks in. But that's hard to believe given how we're already pretty lax or 2) the more transmissible variant could become so widespread as to keep upward pressure on transmission rates. But I don't think it's *that* widespread yet and would need a few months to get there.

I'm keeping a really close eye on nationwide hospitalizations, which have actually dropped for the last four days, but that could just be a blip.

 

It's possible that after the big spike following Thanksgiving people actually listened when it came to gathering for Christmas. There also may be a "I'll be damned if I'm gonna screw around and catch it now when I can get the vaccine soon" dynamic at work.

 

I know of zero people who have the flu so far this year.

 

I'm not convinced there was a big spike around Thanksgiving, either. We've been on pretty much the same, steadily-rising trajectory since September-ish.

 

I remember the stat from New Zealand. Remember Southern hemisphere, so flipped seasons. Their Covid response was pretty much the gold standard. Their flu level was on the order of 10-15% of normal as a result.

We both got our flu shots, always do. I worked primary care. It's cheap insurance. It may not be perfect but I don't see anyone else offering me a way to turn the percentages in my favor.