Nate Silver: 2/3 of America's op-ed columnists are "worthless"

I'll give geek darling of the left Silver his due.
But because he is handy with statistical models does not make him a great pundit, or even a good critic.

 

I've heard the term "media narratives" thrown around a lot. I imagine a player being (or not being) clutch is one. What are some others?

I think at any level of reporting, preps to pros, you'll write about players improving with age. Freshmen getting more minutes because they're developing. Rookies adjusting to the pace of the game. Is that a narrative?

 

He is referring most prominently to the media narrative about "momentum" in political campaigns -- and specifically to the idea that he didn't know what he was talking about in 2012 because Peggy Noonan saw a lot of Mitt yard signs in Ohio.

 

Nobody believed that but Peggy Noonan, though.

 

Silver got started back in 2008 when he was a completely obscure, indeed, pseudonymous poster on Daily Kos who wrote long detailed posts on how political journalists were consistently underrating Obama's strength in primaries versus Hilary Clinton, which was the burning issue on that site at that time. Opposition to how political commentary is presented is his raison d'etre. If he wasn't at least a cogent writer, he'd be out of business, because poll aggregation isn't even as difficult a math concept as ERA.

 

Joe Scarborough did.

 

The entire GOP apparatus did.

Mitt was stunned when he lost.

 

FWIW ...

A co-worker who had fairly close ties to the Romney campaign told me that Mitt was expecting to lose, but Ann was absolutely convinced he was going to win that night, and devastated and shocked when he didn't.

If this conflicts with reporting that I've missed published since then, go with the reporting.

 

That's just a ploy, though. That was the GOP to trying self-fulfill prophecy through its media arm. That's been happening for years.

 

Mitt didn't lose.

The liberal puppetmasters have been lying to you for almost two years now.

 

The hell he was. He had no chance of winning. None. The people who control conservative politics, IMO, didn't even want him to win. Winning the presidency isn't nearly as politically profitable as demonizing the president and using that demonization to win elections across state and local platforms.

 

You don't think so?

I think without Hurricane Sandy, it's a dead heat. And without the financial crisis in 2008, that race is a dead heat. Probably a McCain victory. Two outside events essentially carried Obama to victory. The guy has had a very fortuituous run, beginning with his Illinois Senate victory against a sacrificial carpet-bagger.

Obama was absolutely on the ropes after the first debate against Romney. He was in danger of losing the election, and losing it badly. Even Silver was acknowledging that at the time, I believe.