Never too early: MLB 2013 predictions

bubbler just smiled a little bit and doesn't know why.

 

Except Santana isn't particularly good. He's wildly inconsistent at best. Davis has some ability, but so far he looks like a mediocre fifth starter.

Shields certainly fits what they need, but the price was very steep. As you say, you don't know how good Myers is. Of course it's all still a projection until he makes it to the majors, but he is truly an elite-level prospect. Better to try to build around those guys, like the Rays did, and maybe make this kind of trade once all of the other pieces are in place. I just don't see the Royals as having been one good starting pitcher away from a World Series run.

 

Well, I hope he's right. Go Giants!

 

Boras is a cancer most clubs avoid.

 

Lohse is 30-11 the last 2 years -- and 16-3 last season, which is beyond extreme for a guy considering he went a stretch recently where he had a losing record 6 out of 7 years:

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=346798#gameType='R'&sectionType=career&statType=2&season=2012&level='MLB'

Nice pitcher -- strong, serviceable pitcher -- but he kind of reminds me of Brett Myers.

A few years ago Myers went 14-7 with a 3.14 ERA, 180 strikeouts and 60-something walks in 223 innings. Great for fantasy purposes (hi, Ron, wherever you are) and made one think he could continue that kind of production despite playing on the worst team in baseball.

But Myers proceeded to suck in '11 (7-14, 4.46) and did squat last season with 2 teams (3-8 although he his ERA was 3.12 with the ChiSox).

 

A couple of problems with the comparison. Lohse and Myers are different types of pitcher. Myers is probably more gifted, but more erratic. Lohse just wasn't very good until he got to the Cardinals. The uptick in his career is just another Dave Duncan reclamation project, though he did take a big step back in 2010 before putting together back-to-back career seasons.

And can we please never see an evaluation of a pitcher based on his record again? I really don't care what Lohse's record has been. I care that he set new career lows in ERA and WHIP the last two seasons. He also set a career high for strikeouts in 2012. Do I think it is sustainable? No, but he should at least be a good pitcher in 2013.

 

Lohse:

Code:

                                                                                                           
Year   Age  Tm   W   L W-L%  ERA   G  GS GF CG SHO SV     IP    H    R  ER  HR  BB IBB   SO   BF ERA+  WHIP
2001    22 MIN   4   7 .364 5.68  19  16  2  0   0  0   90.1  102   60  57  16  29   0   64  402   80 1.450
2002    23 MIN  13   8 .619 4.23  32  31  0  1   1  0  180.2  181   92  85  26  70   2  124  783  106 1.389
2003    24 MIN  14  11 .560 4.61  33  33  0  2   1  0  201.0  211  107 103  28  45   1  130  850   98 1.274
2004    25 MIN   9  13 .409 5.34  35  34  1  1   1  0  194.0  240  128 115  28  76   5  111  883   89 1.629
2005    26 MIN   9  13 .409 4.18  31  30  1  0   0  0  178.2  211   85  83  22  44   5   86  769  107 1.427
2006    27 TOT   5  10 .333 5.83  34  19  6  0   0  0  126.2  150   83  82  15  44   4   97  566   79 1.532
2007    28 TOT   9  12 .429 4.62  34  32  0  2   1  0  192.2  207  109  99  22  57   3  122  829  100 1.370
2008    29 STL  15   6 .714 3.78  33  33  0  0   0  0  200.0  211   88  84  18  49   3  119  839  112 1.300
2009    30 STL   6  10 .375 4.74  23  22  0  1   1  0  117.2  125   69  62  16  36   2   77  512   86 1.368
2010    31 STL   4   8 .333 6.55  18  18  0  0   0  0   92.0  129   75  67   9  35   2   54  431   59 1.783
2011    32 STL  14   8 .636 3.39  30  30  0  1   1  0  188.1  178   80  71  16  42   1  111  775  109 1.168
2012    33 STL  16   3 .842 2.86  33  33  0  0   0  0  211.0  192   74  67  19  38   1  143  864  134 1.090
12 Yrs         118 109 .520 4.45 355 331 10  8   6  0 1973.0 2137 1050 975 235 565  29 1238 8503   97 1.369

Myers:

Code:

                                                                                                           
Year   Age  Tm  Lg  W  L W-L%  ERA   G  GS GF CG SHO SV     IP    H   R  ER  HR  BB IBB   SO HBP ERA+  WHIP
2002    21 PHI  NL  4  5 .444 4.25  12  12  0  1   0  0   72.0   73  38  34  11  29   1   34   6   92 1.417
2003    22 PHI  NL 14  9 .609 4.43  32  32  0  1   1  0  193.0  205  99  95  20  76   8  143   9   90 1.456
2004    23 PHI  NL 11 11 .500 5.52  32  31  1  1   1  0  176.0  196 113 108  31  62   4  116   6   81 1.466
2005    24 PHI  NL 13  8 .619 3.72  34  34  0  2   0  0  215.1  193  94  89  31  68   2  208  11  118 1.212
2006    25 PHI  NL 12  7 .632 3.91  31  31  0  1   0  0  198.0  194  93  86  29  63   3  189   3  120 1.298
2007    26 PHI  NL  5  7 .417 4.33  51   3 37  0   0 21   68.2   61  33  33   9  27   1   83   1  106 1.282
2008    27 PHI  NL 10 13 .435 4.55  30  30  0  2   1  0  190.0  197 103  96  29  65   6  163   6   96 1.379
2009    28 PHI  NL  4  3 .571 4.84  18  10  1  0   0  0   70.2   74  38  38  18  23   1   50   4   87 1.373
2010    29 HOU  NL 14  8 .636 3.14  33  33  0  2   0  0  223.2  212  88  78  20  66   3  180   3  126 1.243
2011    30 HOU  NL  7 14 .333 4.46  34  33  1  2   0  0  216.0  226 116 107  31  57   5  160   4   85 1.310
2012    31 TOT MLB  3  8 .273 3.31  70   0 41  0   0 19   65.1   65  30  24   8  15   2   41   3  128 1.224
11 Yrs             97 93 .511 4.20 377 249 81 12   3 40 1688.2 1696 845 788 237 551  36 1367  56  101 1.331

Doesn't seem like they're all that different. Few more innings and starts for one, perhaps, but you're looking at the same pitcher, by and large.

 

Myers has always been more of a power pitcher, and Lohse never choked his wife on a Boston street. Other than that, they're exactly the same.

Seriously, if you normalize for the fact that Lohse has pitched most of his career in pitcher's parks and Myers in hitter's parks, that's a pretty remarkable comparison. Throw in Brad Penny and you'd have the complete set.

 

Similar statistics does not mean the same type of pitcher. Sorry, I wasn't clear. I was talking about stuff more than performance.

My bigger issue was judging Lohse solely on wins and losses as you did in the initial post. Terrible way to judge pitchers.

 

I had other stats written down, too lazy. Easier to just post their career numbers.

More than anything I'm just trying to point out that they're at best the 4th or 5th starter.

 

I predict that there will be 500 columns written about the scourge of PEDs based on this Miami revelation.

I also predict this will be 475 columns more than anyone actually wants to read.