New Hampshire Primary Running Thread

Bill Bradley's going to endorse Obama... don't know what impact this will have nationwide, but it could swing some votes in Jersey.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/01/bill-bradley-ba.html

 

No surprise.

 

And minimal impact, I would think. How many of us have even thought of Bill Bradley in the past few years?

 

Hey, give Kristol credit. His cynical read of the situation is spot-on, which actually makes him "right" . . . truly a rare occurrance for this particular wrongheaded douche, in the modern era.

 

Maybe she was refering to her ever changing hair styles.

 

Well knock me down with a feather.

 

Anecdotal evidence department: My son spent yesterday canvassing for Obama in Manchester and Concord. Says that he found a great deal more Ron Paul sentiment than is evident in most polls. Many independents saying they would either pick one of the Dems or say "fuck it" and vote for Paul as a total repudiation of the system.

 

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/062825.php

Obama might well be taking enough independents in New Hampshire to keep this thing close between McCain and Romney.

OR, McCain might be pulling away...

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/06/552942.aspx

 

The barbarians are at the gates! And they've got college degrees!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/05/AR2008010502616_2.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008010502800

Yet there is palpable disbelief among top Clinton supporters here that she should be facing a tight finish in a state that was once seen as Clinton turf, and against a candidate with as thin a Washington r¿sum¿ as Obama's.

Asked why the race here was so close, Terie Norelli, speaker of the New Hampshire House, declined to answer, instead repeating that Clinton is the "best prepared," thanks to her "35 years of experience."

Mary Louise Hancock, the 87-year-old grande dame of the state's Democrats, said she "resented" that independent voters were poised to influence the outcome of the Democratic primary, saying it turned the vote into a "personal-liking affair" dominated by "students and the trendies."

Senate President Sylvia B. Larsen came closest to acknowledging the threat. While she held out hope that Clinton could hold on here, Larsen also made the case that a loss would not be fatal.

"She's so well organized in the other states, like Ohio," Larsen said. "She's ready to go on, even if she comes in second here."

 

Heaven forbid "students and trendies" get involved. :

 

I think both races are going to be so close Tuesday that neither of the 1-2's are going to be much damaged here. Even if Clinton loses by a thin margin, she's got enough money to go on. (If, somehow, Edwards manages to take second again, then all bets are off for HRC.) If McCain loses to Romney, I'm not sure he's got the wherewithal for the long haul. His donor base was small to begin with, largely because he spent his pre-truckling career in DC dedicated to pissing all of them off, and a second to Mitt after a fourth in Ioway is going to keep those checkbooks closed. I think the R story of the night is going to be Ron Paul.

 

I largely agree, but the problem for Hillary is, where does she make her stand, now? Obama is moving in South Carolina. Even if she wins Nevada, can she withstand losing three of the first four races? With the rhetoric she has used thus far, that seems highly unlikely.

Edwards needs second in New Hampshire or he's done. He can't keep up in a three-way race all the way through Feb. 5th.

Obama has framed the race on his terms at this point. Edwards is happy to go along, and Hillary just looked pissed off about it. Which on one hand is understandable, but on the other really doesn't help her in New Hampshire -- her remarks after Edwards made it clear he was going to hug Obama were a little shrill and had a whiff of entitlement about them.