New Hampshire Primary Running Thread

Hillary's horseshit experience card puts me in a foul mood. Obama's won more ellections than either she or Edwards has, and frankly, as someone's whose father was involved in state politics for two decades, I happen to think state government actual does matter in terms of experience. "Experience" is just a code word for "trust me because you trusted my husband." She has zero clue how she'd deal with a terroist attack, and to pretend like she'd be the voice of reason in that situation and that Obama would be clueless is absurd. Based on what? That she heard tales of Osama bin Laden over grapefruit breakfasts from 1998-2000?

If you're one of those people who thinks Obama is all hat and no cattle, this article probably won't change your mind, but it will give you a better idea of why Obama is the way he is, and why he appeals to people not already dug in for a fight in the political trenches. It's long profile from The New Yorker, but it's worth reading, especially if you think Obama is nothing but a "good speaker" as my friend pallister continues to mention.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/05/07/070507fa_fact_macfarquhar?printable=true

I think the most interesting point that Obama essentially makes is that we tend to let the outliers define our political parties, and we have ever since we started to go Bush-Clinton-Bush. We tend to believe we disagree more than we really do. I understand that a lot of liberals are pissed off about the last seven years (and rightfully so) and they want someone who is going to fight back, kick the shit out of the other side the way we've been kicked around. And I don't disagree with that on some level. But that whole mentality is what turns so many people off of politics. It might be naive to believe you can change that, incredibly naive even, but as Zeke has said, I'm a little weary and a little leary of being asked to pick up the torch and fight a culture war that started forty years ago. I think Obama will be wiling to fight when he needs to fight. But I think he also understands that every battle is not a fight to the death.

 

If Obama hits 40+ today, South Carolina could be a transformative moment in American history.

That I truly believe.

 

Biden was my favorite, but he had no chance. He has been acting as Obama's attack dog for a few weeks. I don't think that he'll get the VP nod if Obama gets the nomination -- small state plus the Kinnick thing doesn't bode well -- but I'm guessing that he'd be on a short list for Sec'y of State.

 

South Carolina's preordained.

The first deals from the freshly-shuffled deck come AFTER SC, as SC will be an epic slaughter.

 

"Epic slaughter"...interesting. Why do you say that? For example, do you think Republicans will cross over and vote for Obama? (I don't.) Or do you think the entire AA vote will go to Obama? (I think it will split, although the majority will go to Obama.) What will make that happen, Ben?

 

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/new_hampshire_towns_running_out_of_ballots_especially_for_the_dems.php

First, turnout appears to be big in New Hampshire.

Jacky, Ben is referring, I think, to two new polls that came out yesterday regarding South Carolina. They went from a dead heat in mid-December to Obama being up 13 and 20, respectively.

I have not seen the cross tabs, but the general explanation being floated (other than the Iowa wave, obviously) is that African American voters in South Carolina were vary wary of voting for a black candidate, because they were convinced that white voters would not. If very white Iowa and New Hampshire are willing, they seem to be saying, well, we are too.

Here's one of the polls.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=066ea20c-d300-48cd-a585-cc9c356df4eb

 

Carville denies -- for now -- that he's joining Hillary's campaign:
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/james_carville_emphatically_denies_that_hes_going_back_to_work_for_hillary.php

 

Record turnout here.

McCain went to a polling station this morning and it was a mob scene, which looked good for him, because Romney went to the same joint a little earlier and heard the crickets.

Also, a couple of the Manchester polls leaked that the independent votes were being split about evenly between Republicans and Democrats, which would also be good news for McCain -- he'll get two of those for every one that Romney gets.

Still, the camp is nervous. Everybody anxiously waiting for the first exit polls around five o'clock. McCain is upstairs watching a movie, as is his election day tradition.

markvid, Obama is going to win this by a ton, but to echo others: No way she drops out before Super Tuesday. Neither does Romney.

Weird scenario that's remotely possible: Huckabee wins Iowa, McCain wins NH and Michigan, Romney wins SC, and Rudy wins Florida. Then it's a big ol' mess.

It's fun here today. A zoo, but fun.

 

Keep us posted, Jones.

Looking at the tabs on that newest SC poll, the AA split went Obama, 69-23.

 

I'd be shocked if Romney beats Huckabee in SC.

 

But now, and I just barely saw the clip just now, she's crying before the cameras with some sort of "I only care about the people" stuff. I guess someone else can clarify.

And let's not forget that while the clamoring for primaries on the same day sounds all well and good for the voter, it is not the voters that select these candidates. It is the party, pure and simple. Delegates to the convention from the states can change their minds at the last minute. So it's not about you and me. And furthermore, in this godawful long horserace of a campaign, the one thing that can save us is that over the haul, something might come out that makes us wish a frontrunner in a single primary day wasn't our party's nominee. There's good and bad to all of it.

But now that Hillary's crying, her points will go up.

 

Just out of interest Jones, what is the movie of the day?