New Hampshire Primary Running Thread

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/rasmussen_poll_obama_takes_big_lead_in_new_hampshire.php

FWIW

 

Why is the Suffolk poll from today still showing Clinton and Romney in the lead?

 

Much like the DMR poll in Iowa, ARG has the reputation as the most accurate poll in NH, where they are based.

I don't know what the deal is with the Suffolk poll, but the short lag time between the two states is killing Hillary right now. She doesn't have time to stop this, I don't think.

EDIT: The Suffolk poll is tracking, Doc, so it still uses data from before the result was known in Iowa. And it still shows Obama at plus four, Hillary at minus one.

 

zeke --
I've done a lot of work in NH down through the years and while I like Dick Bennett and the ARG is Manchester-based, their calls haven't been too good over the last few cycles. I think the Rasmussen numbers for Ron Paul are startling.

 

Well, they clearly blew Iowa, but their numbers line right up with Rasmussen's today, so for now...

The tracking polls show movement, too. Tonight might be the last chance for either Edwards or Hillary -- the three-way dynamic makes it interesting. Since HRC can probably be counted on to go on the attack, does JRE stay back and hope Hillary screws up? Or does he pile on with her and really make it a brawl?

 

I think he and Obama get into a spirited debate over what a progressive really means. This will leave HRC high and dry and, I hope, the two of them moving along into the South. I think a Obama-Edwards primary campaign is about the best thing for the D's.

 

I don't think it's Huckabee's help Romney needs to steal votes from McCain. I think in New Hampshire, Obama will be a bigger help by stealing Unenrolled voters that McCain normally would count on.

 

And the Clone hits Bingo!
I also think those Rasmussen numbers for Ron Paul don't help the straight-talker either.

 

I think the two of them could, if they both thought it the smart move, do just that, and have a rather high-minded -- but without rancor -- debate on that subject. They could both sort of agree to the frame that the Iowa vote means people want "change" -- hell, at this point the GOP slate is trying to co-opt that slogan -- and both make their cases about their own brand of progressivism.

Which would brilliantly, as you point out, leave Hillary standing there without much to say. Except, you know, Experience, Day One, and, by the way, I'm Fired Up, Too.

At which point Bill probably backhands Mark Penn and goes looking for an all night diner.

 

You might well be right, too, but I really, really want to meet the creature who has narrowed their choices down to John McCain and Obama. I know they exist, I just can't fully fathom it.

New Hampshire: No One Said It Would Make Sense.

 

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1700705,00.html

Meanwhile, this article says Penn was assuring Hillary right up until the end that she was going to win Iowa.

He flat out had to be lying. Somewhere, Bill is throwing shit.

 

Well, an all-night something anyway.
(Sorry, it was just hanging there over the plate.)