New Hampshire Primary Running Thread

http://www.boston.com/news/local/new_hampshire/articles/2008/01/09/voter_turnout_in_new_hampshire_sets_new_primary_record_1199858902/

Yes, spinning accounts for 50K more voters in one party's primary than another. Keep telling yourself that, kids. And, Boom, the Canadian stuff was cheap and stupid when it was new. It's long past its sell-by date.
I honest to god don't know who HRC's voters are in SC. She's not Bubba, so that factors gone. I'm assuming that Obama's got an overwhelming lock on the African-American vote. And even I'm not optimistic enough to think that the D primary turnout's going to be a record there. If Edwards beats Obama, which he could, it means very little one way or the other. The questions going forward for me are twofold: 1) can Huckabee pick up enough support from the conservative Christians in and around Grand Rapids to screw up Mitt in Michigan, and b) have enough people in SC shaken off what they were fed about McCain seven years ago to give him a big number there?

 

Here's the take on NH from the US editor of the Times of London.

He seems as confused as everybody else.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3157581.ece

It seems (let me say with due humility given the recent analytical record) that there is something to the argument that today they may have just been saying, as they appear to have done in the past: "Slow down. This is a long campaign. We don't want to anoint anyone the next president this early, least of all someone the American people know next to nothing about.”

 

Presented without comment:

http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=4109322

The woman whose empathetic question "how do you do it?"  sparked uncharacteristic emotion Monday from Sen. Hillary Clinton ended up voting for Sen. Barack Obama in the New Hampshire primary.

Marianne Pernold Young, 64, a freelance photographer from Portsmouth, N.H., told ABC News that while she was moved by Clinton's emotional moment, she was turned off by how quickly the New York senator regained her "political posture."

 

zeke --
That moment -- or, rather, the use to which it was put -- was the critical moment in the campaign. I have to doubt -- well, I have some doubt -- that Ms. Young is sincere in what she says but look at the logic of it. HRC tears up, and she gets belted around really badly for 12 hours by the opinionmaking elite, despite the fact that people on the ground seem willing to understand why it happened.Believe me, the "no big deal" reaction was the overwhelming winner. Edwards, god love him, screwed up because, unlike Obama, he dove in with both feet and, like the people covering the campaign, saw an opening that wasn;t there. But then, she comes out of it, gives a couple of real good -- and real loooooonnnnnnng -- town hall meetings and she gets zapped for regaining her "political posture." So she can't show emotion because she's a girly girl and she can't be a candiate because she's an iron lady. Most people I talked to recognized the box she was being placed in and didn't like it. Edwards took a real hit on it, by the way, and disappointed me more than he ever has.

 

Oh, I agree with all of that.

Hillary beat Edwards in New Hampshire. Obama's number was 37-38. He hit it. But Edwards was just bleeding female support in the last few days, and it ALL went to Hillary.

Kos has largely the same read, albeit with a better geographical breakdown.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/9/14143/09482/505/433764

The only question, now, is how long Edwards stays in the race.

 

I think he realizes his credibility as a prominent Democrat is rapidly disappearing. With that said, he's enough of a pain in the ass to stick around long enough to be a spoiler. Foof.

 

He's got to stay at least until SC. That's his best chance I would guess.

 

I think we're watching the end of John Edwards' political career, so I'll refrain from any venom, but I, too, was disappointed.

 

His image problem is fascinating, sort of. Here's a guy who really did grow up in a working -class environment, but he comes across as the ultimate limousine liberal. And he had that perecption long before the haircut thing. Of course the staggering idiocy of the way elected officials are portrayed in the mainstream media has a lot to do with it, but you can't solely blame the shitty coverage.

Seeing him try to channel William Jennings Bryan has been just flat-out weird. I don't dislike the guy, but it is time for him to go away.

 

There's a hierarchy in those little mill towns, and Edwards' family was at the top of it. Everyone in those towns worked in the cotton mill for while. Part of the drill of growing up linthead.

How big is his warchest now? That's usually the deciding factor, and that's why Romney ain't going anywhere.

 

True that Edwards wasn't a Carolinian Oliver Twist as a youth, but he at least had frequent contact with poor folks. He doesn't come across like one who has, though.

 

You can blame a lot on Edwards and his handlers for his image. Just last night marching in to the strains of "This is Our Country"