Newt Gingrich, The Ship Be Sinking

My bad. He's great. Smooth sailing in November. All is well.

 

It's going to be interesting. People were so excited about the guy three years ago and he hasn't lived up to the hype.

 

Most of the old folks - who only care about the viability of Social Security and Medicare - will vote for Obama. Just like they did in 2008. That won't change. Yet there is also an emerging set of old people... the ones who maybe get 50% of their retirement income from Social Security. The ones who saved for past 60.

They are VERY concerned about spending, social security, entitlements. They are called the Tea Party. Many of them are batsh!t when you talk to them but I see them standing in line next November more than I do the "twenty-somethings" who may or may not have a job by that point.

As for capturing the middle -- another element, who will win over the Minivan Mom? They broke, hard, for Obama in 2008. Yet what happens in 2012, when he's no longer "shiny & new"? Especially in manufacturing households, if the husband isn't making what he made in 2008, how many of them will want to stay with Obama? If any of them have been told by a small business owner, "no, we aren't hiring because we feel like the current administration is trying to soak us", will they want more of the same?

Female voters, especially, can be influenced by a confident, good-looking politician. Bill Clinton in 1992. Al Gore, especially, in 2000. Barack Obama in 2008. Yet if the Republicans nominate a confident Texan like Rick Perry, a guy with good hair, an easy smile, some swagger, confidence and a state that is financially healthy, they'll listen. Wait -- he sounds like Obama except he has a track record.

That's a far easier "advertising sell" for female voters than Bob Dole '96 or John McCain '08. Think that's sexist? All you other married guys on here know I'm absolutely right. Same reason women love McConaghey even though his movies are sh!t. He's confident, positive and makes them feel better about themselves. Like Obama was on the campaign trail.

This all assumed unemployment will be at 9% in 17 months. Maybe it will -- maybe not. If the number ticks to 8%, Obama wins...probably with ease.

On the Republican side, *who* can build the loose coalition to win? I think Perry could be the difference for NC, FL, NV, MO and, possibly OH and IA. If it's Romney, he would be best in PA and VA. This will be very close, regardless of the nominee.

 

I don't think the demographics of Nevada make it viable to swing back to the GOP anytime soon. Agree that N.C. is likely to switch back to red, less sure about Iowa and Virginia.

 

Perry is running for vice president.

 

If they're unemployed they'll have plenty of time to campaign for him all he has to do is promise to keep extending unemployment benefits throughout the campaign

I debated about putting this in the blue font, since I was only half kidding about this... If Perry get;s the Republican nomination, I'm seriously going to consider moving out of the country, b/c after having lived in Texas during his time as governor, the thought of him in the white house scares the hell out of me

 

Don't worry about the complacency factor. Walker, Ryan, Kasich, Scott, etc etc have taken care of that.

 

I said, if the economy tanks a little further, around February, he could decide this is not a winnable situation. Just like Black September sunk McCain, late 2011 early 2012 could shape Obama's future. Or, it could be another Black September. Bottom line, he ain't winning if the economy sucks, if unemployment is up above 10 percent or the depression is upon us. I know this flies in the face of the Messiah talk of 2008, but I don't see a lot of good, positive change. Even his bump from killing Osama is gone.

 

Anything but a good insurance policy for Romney . .. not at all.

 

Being left with the Augean Stable to clean is somewhat more difficult than the task left to, say, Ike.

 

Once the voting populace gets better-acquainted with Perry, his "puke" rating will rival Palin's -- because he's more of the same look-behind-the-curtain social-conservative, we'll-vote-your-rights-away bilge.

 

I agree, but he made big promises that he hasn't been able to deliver. He didn't run in 2008 on the "It's going to get worse before it gets better" platform.