Newt Gingrich, The Ship Be Sinking

Darth Milhous still pulling strings from the great beyond.

 

Dave: Do you really think a level-headed network like NBC would post links to interviews that go against their general political mindset?

 

Some thoughts - to this point...

I think that Romney/Perry would be very, very tough to beat. However, I don't see a guy like Rick Perry as anyone's "offensive coordinator". He is a head coach, a top dog. I think Perry would rather stay a popular governor rather than be a VP nominee this year. If it looks like Perry doesn't have a decent chance of winning, I think he doesn't run and waits until 2016.

Pawlenty looks like he is playing for a VP role with Romney. He was on the "short list" in 2008 with McCain and, mercifully for him, was not chosen. His natural tendency is not to be an attack dog -- you can't do that in Minnesota, as a Republican, and win the governor's race...twice. I thought, a month ago, Pawlenty had the chops to be the nominee but he appears stuck.

The real question, for the smart voters (and I'm not sure how many are out there):
Which Republican can go into the following states...and win:
Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin and Missouri?

The Southeast, from Texas to South Carolina...will go Republican.
The Northeast, from Pennsylvania on north and east...will go Democrat
Minnesota/Wisconsin go Democrat

A Republican could still win the presidency - while losing Pennsylvania - if he captures Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, Virginia and North Carolina. I think that Rick Perry could really do this, as the presidential nominee. He would shore up Florida, Nevada, keep Missouri solid and may appeal in Iowa more than Romney would.

Yet I think Romney could do better in Ohio and Pennsylvania, even if that means he could lose Florida or Nevada.

 

Not to knock your analysis ex, but as bolded in your quote, isn't this the same situation almost every year sayeth the pundits?

At this point, I won't eliminate a possible Obama withdrawal by February if things don't get better.

 

It's one thing to be an incendiary presence. It's another thing to throw up stuff that's batshit crazy. No credible poll has Obama in significant danger of losing, so why the hell would he withdraw? Think before you bait.

 

Come on, dools. Let the wingnut dance party have their fun.

Fantasizing about an Obama pullout is certainly more fun than thinking about the lineup of losers currently vying for the Republicant nomination.

 

One of the traps some righties consistently fall into is letting their feelings interfere with gimlet-eyed
analysis. Liking Rick Perry doesn't automatically translate into his being a slam-dunk. Waving around
a six-shooter isn't going to play nearly as well in Ashtabula or Allentown as it does in Austin.

 

You mean this won't play well?

The Enthusiasm Gap will determine the winner. If the unemployment rate for people 20-29 is still at 15%, are they going to show up for Obama, knock on doors, raise money and be as enthused as in 2008? Hard to say. I don't think they will switch to the Republicans but I could see them just staying home.

Same for African-Americans. If their unemployment rate doesn't get any better, will they show up to vote in Virginia and North Carolina? If not, Obama loses.

As always, the candidate who placates the old folks and captures the middle will win.

 

The complacency factor could help republicans make it interesting. Like he said, the young vote and the minority vote isn't likely to swing to the republicans, but if they stayed home because they're indifferent or worse about Obama, that could be a big boost for the republicans.

 

Keep telling yourself that. Keep repeating it. Obama is a lock. Obama is a lock. He can't lose. No way. Never happen.

I would be amazed if he won re-election. Instead of platitudes to run on he has a record to defend now. And that record, if looked at without starry "Obama is the one we have been waiting for" eyes, is not very impressive. In fact, it is downright awful.

But keep chiming in how Obama is a shoo-in. We never get tired of hearing how confident you are. I would suggest, however, that you step out of your comfort zone and find out what the country actually thinks about your messiah.

 

Don't you dare diss Black Jesus.

 

The complacency factor will be negated when the Obama campaign reminds all its voters what a train wreck we had the last time the Republicans controlled the entire government.

And the Republicans aren't making any new voters among older voters with their Medicare scheme. So far, they've done a great job of reminding folks why putting them in charge of any branch of government is a bad idea.