NFL offseason thread

That’s a hell of a long projection.

 

Acknowledged. But teams make projections on long time frames when they're using top five picks. Use such a pick on a QB, you are betting that at a minimum he's gonna be a multiple time Pro Bowler and good enough to keep his job for a decade. That's basically the projection for any top five pick. Most aren't of course, but you have to pick somebody, so it's your best guess.

 

But most of your top TE are drafted far later than that. You can get great Tight ends far later in the draft.

 

That was Jerry Jones' theory about running backs.

Until it wasn't.

 

Pitts is a different case since he might not wind up being a tight end at all.

 

My 2:

*Fields is not "terrible." He throws a decent ball and doesn't make an inordinate amount of really stupid decisions with the ball. He's not very good in a pocket - moves around too much, tends to look deep to short always, etc. Mid-range starter in the league. Not terrible. Haskins was terrible. Fields is a much better athlete and has a better arm.

*Mac Jones is a prick, and that's a decent quality for a QB to have. He's cockier than he should be, he'll tear ass when necessary, and he's pretty damn accurate on all those little short throws that teams use now as glorified run plays. I think he can be what the Niners want, and I think he can be better than, say, a Kirk Cousins. (Who outplayed his draft slot.)

*Hard to get a feel for Trey Lance. Wentz has spectacular gifts - egomaniac, but talented - and the guy who came after Wentz was drafted but is nothing special, and Lance may be closer to one than the other.

*Trask I like. I think he'll go somewhere, back somebody up, get a chance, and be pretty good. He takes some chances with the ball, can get hot, and probably falls in with a decent roster. I think he's better than Fields or Lance, personally, but I don't know much about Lance.

*Zac Wilson could be Baker Mayfield or Jay Cutler. On the high end, he's a Warren Moon first-class gunslinger who throws it into every tight spot and plays for 15 years.

 

First of all, great players can emerge anywhere in the draft. Darren Waller was a sixth round pick that toiled around in the league for three years and now is a 100-catch/season tight end.

Forget thinking in terms of being the next Kelce, because there's probably not a next Kelce coming for a while. And if Pitts' success is banking on him being the next Kelce...well fuck...

Vernon Davis is a good midpoint for the position in general. His combine workout was basically a video game creation, 4.38, 42" vert, 33 bench...that's ridiculous 15 years later.

So take Vernon's five best seasons and is that top five pick worthy? Probably not. Top 15-20? Absolutely. Top 10-15? Marginally.

 

And if he’s not a TE he loses that value, does he not?

 

Does he? What's a 6-6 240-pound WR who runs 4.4 worth?

 

One-tenth of a second faster, he’d have better measurables than Megatron.

 

/approves

 

Add that he has something close to an 83, 84" wingspan and will be covered by DB's who are 5'11" to maaaybe 6'2". You throw the the way they did to Megatron, somewhere in the area, and let him go up and get it. And he's a good route runner.