NFL offseason thread

Yeah, and you also see Carson Palmer 10 spots above Andrew Luck.

 

Yeah. It's definitely not perfect, but for the most part, you see who you think you should see where you think you should see them on that list. There's always an outlier or two in every ranking.

I mean, Luck did throw the second-most INTs in the league. And his completion percentage wasn't good.

 

QB rating just reflects passing efficiency, not the entire package.

I think most QBs (and others) regress a little bit in the second year simply because opponents are better prepared to defend what they do. Sure, they'll adjust and have fine careers, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them (and those teams, which overachieved last year) take a step back first. No reason to panic.

 

Eh, Luck did fall into an INT rut in the second half. But for the most part what you're pointing out is attributable to the nature of the Colts' offense, which was far more old-school and deep-strike, and the lack of a defense or running game.

My point here was that it's crazy to look at something like passer rating, and the fact that Cam Newton righted himself in that category in the final month with a string of meaningless games against other non-contenders (with Atlanta being the one exception), and conclude that his second season was as good as his first.

 

I mean, I kinda agree with your point on Newton. That's why it surprised me that his stats were similar to his rookie season. It just seemed like he took a step back last year.

Luck threw the second-most INTs in the league and had the second-worst completion percentage. Without knowing the dumb formula for QB rating, I'm sure that had a big part in him finishing in the bottom half. Also, INTs and completion percentage are pretty important stats regardless. The top tier QBs don't throw many picks and complete 60% or more of their passes.

Luck isn't misrepresented in those rankings.

 

Sure he is. If he is throwing the slants and 5-yard passes that the others are being asked to throw, he ends up above 60 percent. If he has the run game and play-action support that Griffin has (I think RG3 led the NFL in percentage of passes thrown from play-action), his completion percentages go up significantly. That's a fact across the board in the NFL, play-action passes are completed at a much higher percentage. But Luck's team threw deep out of straight dropbacks a lot more than other teams did. So he was starting at a disadvantage in terms of those statistical measures and would have had to be damn close to perfect to equal the guys playing on a different scale.

 

Maybe so, and I'm guessing there are some new, advanced stats that would back that up. You can use it as an excuse as to why his stats look the way they did, but you can't ignore how he performed, and the stats he put up, in those situations.

Either way, I'd be stunned if Luck doesn't have a MUCH better year, stats wise, this season. He's a smart kid. And the players around him will be better.

Luck ranked 17th in yards per attempt.

 

I can't believe I'm spending all this time defending Cam Newton, but he was third in the NFL in yards per pass attempt last year, behind only RGIII and Peyton Manning. So the "dink-and-dunk" theory does not hold up:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt

 

Agree. I think he just had a lot more bad games last year than he did in his rookie year. Or maybe it just seemed that way. But you're right. He didn't fall off all that much last season.

 

But he ranked third in yards per completion. And that perfectly illustrates the difference in philosophies. RG3 ranked first in YPA and fifth in YPC. Peyton Manning was third in YPA and 15th in YPC.

You can call it an "excuse" if you want, but I think that just shows a lack of understanding of the different ways teams can play. This was being talked about the whole season as the total stylistic difference between Luck and the other three "rookies" (including Kaepernick as a rookie for these purposes). It wasn't just an after-the-fact retrofitting to make him look better. He was throwing more high-risk, high-reward passes than anybody else.

They had a team that went 2-14 the previous season and had $35 million in dead money, not much running game or defense, and made the playoffs. Their wins included four fourth-quarter comebacks. I'm not sure what the issue is with "how he performed."

 

Right. But that IS an excuse. I understand the different ways teams play just fine. What he did last year was impressive, taking a team from where it was into the playoffs. But he's still not a top 10 QB in the league. He's generally ranked about where he should be given his performance. He still turned the ball over a ton and didn't complete many of his passes. That doesn't mean he had a shitty season by any means. But let's not act like he's a top-tier QB.

But as I said before, I do think he'll perform better this year. He'll be a top 10 QB soon enough.