NFL Week 11: In four weeks we can put TEBOW!!!! in the headline

Bob Cook · Nov 18, 2011

Re: NFL Week 11: Alex Smith's Hall of Fame campaign begins

outofplace said:

Bob Cook said:

I hate to say this, but Tebow is getting better.

First thing, he's becoming a quick study on how to handle a pass rush. He's feeling it much better, and he's making smart decisions on when to run. He was sacked 13 times by Detroit and Miami -- but only twice since. Now, I'm sure there are improvements in the line that have helped. But I also wonder if Fox has told Tebow not to wait til the last second to decide on running. If there's a lane, go for it. By not waiting, Tebow is much more likely to gain some ground before the second level notices he's there -- and by that point, it's much harder for a defensive back to take him down.

Second, the Broncos are calling plays that work for him. Options, options with shovel pass, and the occasional long ball. Quick screens. His completion rate is still horrible for an NFL quarterback, and it seems like luck if he hits someone more than 10 yards away. But, again, the Broncos are having Tebow play to his strengths, rather than force him to be what he's not. Though if Tebow could hit the long ball more often, he's going to be that much more dangerous. I think a lot of the extra running room he had against the Jets came from his first pass being a successful long ball up the sidelines -- the kind of pass he hasn't been able to complete at all. At that point, they took Tebow more seriously as a thrower.

Now, this is hard to measure, but is Tebow what put the Broncos over the hump? Under Orton, they were 1-4, but three of the losses were by a combined 11 points. Under Tebow, three of his wins were by a combined 14 points, with two of them coming late after the Broncos trailed all game. But, no doubt, by the numbers, Tebow is a fourth-quarter QB.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/13200/tim-tebow

QUARTER = 1 10 17 119 58.8 7.00 28 1 0 3 99.9 10 72 7.2 32 1
QUARTER = 2 8 28 40 28.6 1.43 16 0 0 3 39.6 12 65 5.4 21 0
QUARTER = 3 10 30 151 33.3 5.03 29 1 0 3 61.9 11 79 7.2 19 0
QUARTER = 4 28 50 399 56.0 7.98 56 5 1 5 107.0 23 172 7.5 28 2

And, by comparison, here are Orton's quarter-by-quarter splits:

QUARTER = 1 25 42 199 59.5 4.74 17 1 2 0 59.5 0 0 0.0 0 0
QUARTER = 2 23 45 297 51.1 6.60 44 2 2 2 68.5 4 19 4.8 13 0
QUARTER = 3 20 26 197 76.9 7.58 25 2 0 3 123.4 0 0 0.0 0 0
QUARTER = 4 23 42 286 54.8 6.81 52 3 3 4 70.1 1 -2 -2.0 -2 0

I know Tebow's fourth-quarter numbers are somewhat skewed because he came in late against San Diego the first time around. But it seems clear that the rest of the Broncos aren't necessarily playing appreciably better under Tebow than they were under Orton. What is clear is that the quarterbacking in the fourth quarter is appreciably better with Tebow than it was with Orton, and that's turned those close losses into close wins.
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How does looking at only the team's quarterbacking statistics make it clear that the team isn't playing better?
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I hedged it by saying appreciably better. Basically, except for a blowout against Green Bay, the Broncos were in every other of the three games they played under Orton, but could only pull out one of the four. Under Tebow, the Broncos had three games that they could have lost (other than the blowout to the Lions), and yet they won those close games. I'm just trying to figure out what difference Tebow makes, and right now, it appears to be play in the fourth quarter.

Certainly, the rushing numbers in the fourth quarter stand out. If Orton couldn't get the ball in, forget it. But if Tebow can't, he can run, and the beauty is that in the fourth quarter defenses are tending to play back to prevent the big play, so Tebow's got some room.

Of course, Tebow scored last night on a big blitz, and if d-coordinators are smart, they're not going to run that kind of play again. Tebow recognized it right away, figured out where the space was, and there was no one behind to help. Tebow can't throw consistently, but a team is going to have to have someone there for run support on every play.

Speaking of Tebow running, if Fox is smart, last night is the last time he uses a handoff to try to pick up fourth-and-short. Tebow is bigger than any running back Denver has -- just push him up the middle.

Boom_70 · Nov 18, 2011

Re: NFL Week 11: Alex Smith's Hall of Fame campaign begins

Whoever is calling the plays for The Broncos is doing a good job. The Jets D seemed off balance all night.

Bob Cook · Nov 18, 2011

Re: NFL Week 11: Alex Smith's Hall of Fame campaign begins

poindexter said:

Good stuff, Bob Cook.
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Thanks, Poin. I figured there had to be numbers to explain why the Broncos were winning under Tebow when they weren't under Orton.

LongTimeListener · Nov 18, 2011

Re: NFL Week 11: Alex Smith's Hall of Fame campaign begins

Bob touches on something with "Tebow recognized it right away" on the blitz. He isn't just playing streetball back there, getting in the pocket and saying OH SHIT NOW WHAT?!?! On NFL Net last night he described the final play, said they had run the play once before and he noticed the safety shift, so when they dialed it up this time he knew where his lane would be. It is no different in that sense from knowing where the open receiver is going to be.

Boom_70 · Nov 18, 2011

Re: NFL Week 11: Alex Smith's Hall of Fame campaign begins

Bob Cook said:

I hate to say this, but Tebow is getting better.

First thing, he's becoming a quick study on how to handle a pass rush. He's feeling it much better, and he's making smart decisions on when to run. He was sacked 13 times by Detroit and Miami -- but only twice since. Now, I'm sure there are improvements in the line that have helped. But I also wonder if Fox has told Tebow not to wait til the last second to decide on running. If there's a lane, go for it. By not waiting, Tebow is much more likely to gain some ground before the second level notices he's there -- and by that point, it's much harder for a defensive back to take him down.

Second, the Broncos are calling plays that work for him. Options, options with shovel pass, and the occasional long ball. Quick screens. His completion rate is still horrible for an NFL quarterback, and it seems like luck if he hits someone more than 10 yards away. But, again, the Broncos are having Tebow play to his strengths, rather than force him to be what he's not. Though if Tebow could hit the long ball more often, he's going to be that much more dangerous. I think a lot of the extra running room he had against the Jets came from his first pass being a successful long ball up the sidelines -- the kind of pass he hasn't been able to complete at all. At that point, they took Tebow more seriously as a thrower.

Now, this is hard to measure, but is Tebow what put the Broncos over the hump? Under Orton, they were 1-4, but three of the losses were by a combined 11 points. Under Tebow, three of his wins were by a combined 14 points, with two of them coming late after the Broncos trailed all game. But, no doubt, by the numbers, Tebow is a fourth-quarter QB.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/13200/tim-tebow

QUARTER = 1 10 17 119 58.8 7.00 28 1 0 3 99.9 10 72 7.2 32 1
QUARTER = 2 8 28 40 28.6 1.43 16 0 0 3 39.6 12 65 5.4 21 0
QUARTER = 3 10 30 151 33.3 5.03 29 1 0 3 61.9 11 79 7.2 19 0
QUARTER = 4 28 50 399 56.0 7.98 56 5 1 5 107.0 23 172 7.5 28 2

And, by comparison, here are Orton's quarter-by-quarter splits:

QUARTER = 1 25 42 199 59.5 4.74 17 1 2 0 59.5 0 0 0.0 0 0
QUARTER = 2 23 45 297 51.1 6.60 44 2 2 2 68.5 4 19 4.8 13 0
QUARTER = 3 20 26 197 76.9 7.58 25 2 0 3 123.4 0 0 0.0 0 0
QUARTER = 4 23 42 286 54.8 6.81 52 3 3 4 70.1 1 -2 -2.0 -2 0

I know Tebow's fourth-quarter numbers are somewhat skewed because he came in late against San Diego the first time around. But it seems clear that the rest of the Broncos aren't necessarily playing appreciably better under Tebow than they were under Orton. What is clear is that the quarterbacking in the fourth quarter is appreciably better with Tebow than it was with Orton, and that's turned those close losses into close wins.
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Why do you "hate to say this" ? Do you not like Tebow?

YGBFKM · Nov 18, 2011

Re: NFL Week 11: Alex Smith's Hall of Fame campaign begins

Bob Cook said:

poindexter said:

Good stuff, Bob Cook.
Click to expand...

Thanks, Poin. I figured there had to be numbers to explain why the Broncos were winning under Tebow when they weren't under Orton.
Click to expand...

Orton voted for Obama and is now suffering the consequences.

poindexter · Nov 18, 2011

Re: NFL Week 11: Alex Smith's Hall of Fame campaign begins

Perhaps they wouldn't have been a fourth quarter team if they would have let Tebow run sooner. He had only two rushes until the final drive. The Jets appeared to have three nose tackles playing up front all game, and Denver insisted on rushing the running backs up the gut.

Bob Cook · Nov 18, 2011

Re: NFL Week 11: Alex Smith's Hall of Fame campaign begins

Boom_70 said:

Bob Cook said:

I hate to say this, but Tebow is getting better.

First thing, he's becoming a quick study on how to handle a pass rush. He's feeling it much better, and he's making smart decisions on when to run. He was sacked 13 times by Detroit and Miami -- but only twice since. Now, I'm sure there are improvements in the line that have helped. But I also wonder if Fox has told Tebow not to wait til the last second to decide on running. If there's a lane, go for it. By not waiting, Tebow is much more likely to gain some ground before the second level notices he's there -- and by that point, it's much harder for a defensive back to take him down.

Second, the Broncos are calling plays that work for him. Options, options with shovel pass, and the occasional long ball. Quick screens. His completion rate is still horrible for an NFL quarterback, and it seems like luck if he hits someone more than 10 yards away. But, again, the Broncos are having Tebow play to his strengths, rather than force him to be what he's not. Though if Tebow could hit the long ball more often, he's going to be that much more dangerous. I think a lot of the extra running room he had against the Jets came from his first pass being a successful long ball up the sidelines -- the kind of pass he hasn't been able to complete at all. At that point, they took Tebow more seriously as a thrower.

Now, this is hard to measure, but is Tebow what put the Broncos over the hump? Under Orton, they were 1-4, but three of the losses were by a combined 11 points. Under Tebow, three of his wins were by a combined 14 points, with two of them coming late after the Broncos trailed all game. But, no doubt, by the numbers, Tebow is a fourth-quarter QB.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/13200/tim-tebow

QUARTER = 1 10 17 119 58.8 7.00 28 1 0 3 99.9 10 72 7.2 32 1
QUARTER = 2 8 28 40 28.6 1.43 16 0 0 3 39.6 12 65 5.4 21 0
QUARTER = 3 10 30 151 33.3 5.03 29 1 0 3 61.9 11 79 7.2 19 0
QUARTER = 4 28 50 399 56.0 7.98 56 5 1 5 107.0 23 172 7.5 28 2

And, by comparison, here are Orton's quarter-by-quarter splits:

QUARTER = 1 25 42 199 59.5 4.74 17 1 2 0 59.5 0 0 0.0 0 0
QUARTER = 2 23 45 297 51.1 6.60 44 2 2 2 68.5 4 19 4.8 13 0
QUARTER = 3 20 26 197 76.9 7.58 25 2 0 3 123.4 0 0 0.0 0 0
QUARTER = 4 23 42 286 54.8 6.81 52 3 3 4 70.1 1 -2 -2.0 -2 0

I know Tebow's fourth-quarter numbers are somewhat skewed because he came in late against San Diego the first time around. But it seems clear that the rest of the Broncos aren't necessarily playing appreciably better under Tebow than they were under Orton. What is clear is that the quarterbacking in the fourth quarter is appreciably better with Tebow than it was with Orton, and that's turned those close losses into close wins.
Click to expand...

Why do you "hate to say this" ? Do you not like Tebow?
Click to expand...

I'm merely reflecting the haterzzzzzz out there. Though I don't like Tebow because I'm in a shitty QB league, where the worse your QB is, the more points you get. Tebow looked like gold for me, and now he's fucking with me, especially by winning late.

Mizzougrad96 · Nov 18, 2011

Re: NFL Week 11: Alex Smith's Hall of Fame campaign begins

How big will the Tebow legend be if he leads them to the playoffs?

shockey · Nov 18, 2011

Re: NFL Week 11: Alex Smith's Hall of Fame campaign begins

heyabbott said:

Fat Rex is the one who looks silly. Beyond silly. He's starting to look like an incompetent boob.
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indeed. after two seasons of tricking jets fans into thinking their fortunes were changing, it's highly-entertaining to see them remember who they are. SAME OL' JETS.

the tebow stuff is just a distraction, an entertaining sideshow. his qb skills have improve not a lick. but he's done a marvelous job taking advantage os this perfect storm. his flavor-of-the-month reign will be shortlived, and fox and elway know it -- which is why they sound and look so conflicted.

when did darrelle revis become deion sanders COMPLETELY? he wasnt satified being the best shutdown corner since deion. now he tackles lie him, too?

awful job by sexy rexy and his 'can do no wrong' in his eyes defense and d-coordinator on denver's winning drive. and if he wants to call sanchez's timeout vs. the pats last week 'the stupidest' in history, he might want to admit the third-and-4 all-out blitz call on the winning play was the worst ever. omg, was that awful!!

LongTimeListener · Nov 18, 2011

Re: NFL Week 11: Alex Smith's Hall of Fame campaign begins

poindexter said:

Perhaps they wouldn't have been a fourth quarter team if they would have let Tebow run sooner. He had only two rushes until the final drive. The Jets appeared to have three nose tackles playing up front all game, and Denver insisted on rushing the running backs up the gut.
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Maybe I am giving the Broncos coaches too much credit, but I wonder if they are doing that on purpose. When you face an option quarterback, the more times you see that rollout the better feel you get for what he's going to do with the ball and which way he's going to cut if he does keep it. That last drive the Jets just had no idea where he was going.

LongTimeListener · Nov 18, 2011

Re: NFL Week 11: Alex Smith's Hall of Fame campaign begins

Bob Cook said:

I'm merely reflecting the haterzzzzzz out there. Though I don't like Tebow because I'm in a shitty QB league, where the worse your QB is, the more points you get. Tebow looked like gold for me, and now he's fucking with me, especially by winning late.
Click to expand...

You must have been really pissed when the Vikings benched McNabb.

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NFL Week 11: In four weeks we can put TEBOW!!!! in the headline

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