NFL Week 11: In four weeks we can put TEBOW!!!! in the headline

The last five games show a lot. You just have to know what you are looking for. It takes a slightly more advanced point of view than "This is what happened, so that must be what Tebow made happen, and that's what will likely to continue to happen."

Tebow has avoided turnovers so far. That's not sustainable with his skillset. A quarterback who runs a lot and can't throw accurately will eventually begin to turn the ball over.

If Tebow can continue at a 0.2 turnover per game pace, then he'd have a great career ahead of him. But the best available evidence is that he can't.

*flashback to having this exact same argument with Bears fans in 2005. "Orton doesn't turn the ball over!" they'd say*

 

I don't know why any Bears fan would have been saying that about a guy who had 9 TDs and 13 INTs that season, including a 5-INT day in his third game. You would think they would have realized that was an incorrect assertion. And I would think you of all people would have pointed that factual inaccuracy.

You're disallowing my contention that the Broncos were on the road to 3-13 with Orton, and you are basing your opinion on the idea that Tebow ***will*** turn it over someday.

 

I didn't disallow it, I disagreed with it. You can believe it, but you'd be wrong.

If you want to go into Vegas and bet your life savings and next five years' earnings on the roulette wheel, I'm going to tell you it's a bad idea. If you hit and become relatively rich, then it was still a bad idea. And you shouldn't do it again.

If you bet on Tim Tebow to be your quarterback and you hit, it was still a bad bet. And you shouldn't do it again.

 

Betting on Tim Tebow to be your quarterback for the future is an entirely different proposition than betting on Tim Tebow to be more successful than Kyle Orton, who is 6-21 in his last 27 starts with the Broncos.

 

It's still a bad bet.

 

Most people would look at a team that started 1-4, changed quarterbacks, won four of its next five games -- two against teams it's battling for a playoff spot -- and salvaged its season and say the coach did a nice job.

I guess in the new era, because the metrics show that the quarterback eventually won't play as well, the coach is just an idiot who got lucky.

 

Most people believe lots of things that are wrong. Ever checked out youarenotsosmart.com? It's a fantastic BLOG! covering human cognitive biases.

Nobody brought up any metrics. Actually, in this disagreement, you are the one who keeps relying on statistics and I'm telling you a scouting-report reason why they don't matter.

 

If Orton did sign with the Bears, and somehow they got hot and he was able to get them to the playoffs, I think my head might explode. All we would need at that point for shit to get really weird, for me to feel like I was in a totally bizarro world, would be for the Redskins to somehow get hot and win their division so they could face Rex Grossman in the first round. The winner could move on to face Jim Harbaugh, and maybe the loser could hump Cade McNown's wife as a consolation prize, and Jim Miller and Erik Kramer interview everyone about it on the Bears post game show so that pretty much every mediocre Bears quarterback of the last 25 years could be involved.

Dave Krieg, Rick Mirer, Chad Hutchinson, Kordell Stewart, Craig Krenzel, Shane Mathews, Henry Burris, Steve Walsh, Jonathan Quinn, Moses Moreno and Brian Griese are just going to have to buy a ticket. Cause fuck 'em, that's why.

I'll let Peter Tom Willis in for nostalgia's sake though.

 

I guess I will just remain blissfully ignorant and accept the false premise that Tebow's insertion into the lineup turned the Broncos' season around. Crazy notion, I know.

 

What about Will Furrer, DD?

 

That's probably for the best. Enlightenment is overrated, bliss is better.

 

Steve Stenstrom is really fucking pissed right now.