NFL Week 13: Time to wallow in the Mirer

Just for grins, I looked ahead to see whether NBC would flex out of the next three weeks of SNF games.

Next week, the scheduled game is Detroit at Green Bay. Lions suck this year, but there aren't many flex options. Best choice would either be Chicago at Minnesota or Baltimore at Washington.

Dec. 16 game is San Francisco at New England. No way they're changing that one.

Dec. 23 is San Diego at Jets. That one is toast, to be replaced probably by New Orleans at Dallas.

A lot depends on what happens the next four weeks, but best options for Dec. 30 appear to be Tampa Bay at Atlanta, Houston at Indianapolis or Baltimore at Cincinnati.

 

So its Kaepernick this week (at least, but doubt its week to week) and the reason why?

Courtesy of ESPN:

The extra time Kaepernick holds the ball leads to more snaps under duress. ESPN defines duress as when quarterbacks throw or scramble after being forced from the pocket, or when a defender has a clear path in the quarterback's line of sight, or when the quarterback has to alter his regular throwing motion or is forced to move within the pocket due to pressure.

Kaepernick averages 8.0 yards per pass attempt in these situations. Smith averages 1.2 yards per attempt. Those numbers, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information's John McTigue, translate to a significant advantage for the 49ers if Kaepernick can sustain them.

8 yds/pass vs 1.2; my eyes did not lie. Also since the start of last year, Smith's been sacked more than everyone except Rodgers; his pocket presence is not stellar.

 

Smith shits himself. Kaepernick does not.

QT, is there a link for this?

 

So does Smith throw fewer passes under duress? And if so, that stat might not be as great an advantage as it seems. Do you want more throws under duress? My initial reaction would be no.

 

I read it as Kaepernick can make plays under pressure.

 

Read it again. It says he holds the ball longer, leading to more snaps under duress.

It also says his yards per pass under duress is better, but it implies that Smith has fewer plays under duress.

 

Smith throws too early for there to be duress. That's the biggest difference between the two. Kaepernick waits, no fear, and so far he has just about always shaken off the first tackler. Very much like Big Ben, he gets away and immediately looks all the way down the field.

 

Probably. There's not a game on the board they could have switched to that would clearly bring a higher audience.

TV networks, whatever the sport, don't really care about "pretty good" teams. They want star power and marquee names and big markets. That's why teams like the Heat, Lakers, Celtics and even the Knicks will get more network TV games than, say, San Antonio or Oklahoma City. Same true in hockey or baseball.

 

Probably the best game this week is Saints-Falcons, but that's set in stone for Thursday. Steelers-Ravens is probably more deserving of prime time than Cowboys-Eagles, but I suspect CBS does not want to give that one up.

 

Here you go, should have placed it:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83036/mixed-messages-in-switch-to-kaepernick

Smith may not be under duress as often, but he either gets rid of the ball really fast (not a downfield thrower) or then gets sacked more than anyone else (except for Rodgers.)

 

Yeah, plus NBC just did Steelers-Ravens two weeks ago. A great deal of the NFL scheduling has been lousy this year.

There are some other games available, but nothing that jumps out as must see TV. I won't get a chance to watch anyway so it doesn't look like I'm missing much.

 

Baltimore at Washington is staying at 1 p.m. that day.