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NFL Week 13: Time to wallow in the Mirer

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by YGBFKM, Nov 26, 2012.

  1. Batman

    Batman Well-Known Member

    Also 15th all-time in passing yardage, believe it or not, and 12th in touchdowns. He was in the top 10 of both categories when he retired. Not bad for a guy who only started 16 games five times in an 18-year career.
    He's a step or two below HOF level.
     
  2. joe king

    joe king Active Member

    Since passed in fumbles by Hall of Famers Brett Favre (well, soon to be) and Warren Moon.

    As for the passing numbers, well, those rankings really don't mean that much. Just for reference, Vinny Testaverde and Drew Bledsoe are seventh and eighth in career passing yardage. Kerry Collins is 11th. Testaverde is 10th and Bledsoe 15th in TD passes. Not necessarily Hall of Fame company.

    I'd say Krieg is several steps below HOF level.
     
  3. Ben_Hecht

    Ben_Hecht Active Member


    There's not much that's as much fun in the league as Botox Jerruh continuing to look and preen like a horse's ass, in front of millions. Never gets old.
     
  4. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    BTW did anyone catch Harbaugh's actual quote about naming Kaepernick the starter?

    "What tips the scale, is Colin, we believe, has the hot hand and we'll go with Colin. And we'll go with Alex. They're both our guys."

    Uh, OK.
     
  5. joe king

    joe king Active Member

    Yeah, nothing like decisive leadership!

    And... hot hand? In his last two games (the second of which he left early with an injury), Smith was 25-for-27 (92.6 percent) for 304 yards (11.3 yards per attempt) with four touchdowns and no interceptions. That's a 153.2 rating for those who care about such things.

    Sounds like a pretty hot hand to me.
     
  6. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    I have no problem with the decision. That offense sprang to life immediately when they put in a Kaepernick game plan.

    But it is getting comical to see Harbaugh try to control the message. He spent last week saying he wouldn't name a starter, then Monday he said Smith is the starter even though Kaepernick started.

    The guy is entertainment, though. And burnout just waiting to happen.
     
  7. joe king

    joe king Active Member

    No, I get what you're saying. His decision is his decision and that's OK. The kid's played well, so there's no reason to second-guess at this point. But yes, Harbaugh is definitely twisting himself into a pretzel trying not to offend or alienate anyone. I posted the stats simply to illustrate the silliness of saying Kaepernick has "the hot hand."

    The deal is, the coach thinks Kaepernick is the better player. And that's fine. But he's trying as hard as he can not to say that in order to keep everyone happy. And that's becoming ludicrous.
     
  8. qtlaw

    qtlaw Well-Known Member

    Again, you've got to look at the throws themselves, not just the stats (sabermetrics in football?).

    Smith's numbers in the Ariz game were great (18/19) but at least 3 or 4 were on 3rd down and did not pick up the first down. 50 yds came on a 5 yd hitch to Moss that he took to the house.

    None of those last 27 Smith passes were:

    1. 57 yd bomb to Kyle Williams;
    2. 15 yd. out to Crabtree;
    3. 25 yd deep in to Walker; or
    4. 45 yd crossing to Walker.

    Those 27 throws were against the Cards at home and Rams at home. Kaep just beat the Bears (with Jennings and Tillman) at home and the Saints on the road.

    That's the glaring difference between Smith and Kaepernick.
     
  9. Bob Cook

    Bob Cook Active Member

    Winning games with their defense? Are you kidding me?

    I won't push for Luck as MVP, or even ROY, but, man, the Colts are a textbook case of how much quarterbacking really can matter.

    The defense, as it was last year, and Manning's last year, is horseshit. Like last season, the Colts generate few turnovers, can't stop the run, and aren't any better at stopping the pass. As in the Manning years, the best defender the Colts have is their quarterback. (Part of the offensive strategy was limiting the number of possessions per game.)

    In 2011, with the Collins-Painter-Orlovksy shitshow, the Colts scored only 15.2 points per game (27th in the NFL), and were near the bottom in third-down conversions (35 percent) and yardage (30th), and were worst in number of plays run (951) and time of possession (26:13). They lost seven games by one score (8 points or less), and a few more by only 10 points. Often, the difference in the game was an undersized defense, built to play with a Manning-led lead, wearing out in the fourth quarter because the offense just couldn't stay on the field.

    This year, some things aren't so difference in their stats. The defense is still crap. The turnover margin of minus-14, 30th in the NFL, is more about the Colts' inability to force turnovers). They're giving up 24.8 points per game, and their yardage allowed is in the bottom 10. The offense can't break a big play -- their long run of 26 yards is tied (with Detroit) for worst in the league, and their third-from-the-bottom in longest pass play (48). They're near the bottom in 20-plus runs and 40-plus passes.

    However, those things matter less than they did last year because the Colts actually have a quarterback. The third-down-conversion rate has jumped to 45%, tied for third-best in the league, and the Colts are fourth-best in TOP (32:04) and yards per game (386). No mean feat, given that Bruce Arians has an offense designed to put his QB in frequent third-and-long situations, which may explain why, with 163, the Colts lead the NFL in third downs converted. In fact, the Colts' stats, including points per game (up to 20.9), are similar to what they were last year in Pittsburgh, in Arians' final season there as an OC. (Which is still his official title in Indianapolis.)

    Now that the Colts can pick up a third down once in a while, the defense isn't all gassed by game's end, and actually has the energy to make a few late-game stops. Its points-per-game are down to 24.8, a fact completely attributable to being on the field less, not any improvement by the defense itself. I haven't done the math, but I would guess the Colts are giving up MORE points per minute than they were last year. But with Luck not Curtis Painter, able to pick up a third-down and run a two-minute drill, the Colts are now 6-1 this year in one-score games, as opposed to 1-7 last year.

    It's astounding to me what Luck has been able to pull off, dragging this carcass of a team (a carcass that includes $37 million in salary cap space spent on bonuses of players no longer there, a lot of that Manning) to playoff contention, even with a favorable AFC South schedule. It's going to be scary if Luck even gets his own Edgerrin James, or a second receiver capable of getting open, or a defense that can actually stop people with any consistency.
     
  10. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    You make good points, Bob, but I am talking mostly about their two most recent wins. They definitely beat Jacksonville and Buffalo on the strength of their defense. Against Buffalo especially, Luck was not too sharp -- not what I would call a bad game but not great. That defense started out terrible but has actually gotten quite a bit better as the season has gone on IMO. The whole team is moving toward being very solid and not something you'd want to deal with in the playoffs.

    I think this happens all the time in deciding awards, you have to parse and split hairs, but especially in those Jax and Buf games I feel like Indy could have won with any decent mistake-free quarterback. The games the Redskins are playing, I feel like they have to have RG3 at his best to have a chance.
     
  11. JackReacher

    JackReacher Well-Known Member

    Truth.
     
  12. Bob Cook

    Bob Cook Active Member

    Again, my point wasn't to say that Andrew Luck should by ROY. I bet you can probably do some similar analysis to gauge the impact of RGIII, especially with the improvement of Washington's running game. My point was to say that, unlike last year, the Colts HAVE a decent, mistake-free quarterback, so they are winning games like Jax and Buffalo that they would have lost last year. (Also, I don't want to give the Colts defense too much credit -- Jax and Buffalo had shit for quarterbacks and didn't take advantage of opportunities the Colts D gave. Plus, the one one-score loss was to Jax on an inexplicable 80-yard touchdown pass when they were presumably in prevent mode at the end of a game.)

    Looking at the impact of a Manning-less Colts in 2011, and how an 80-percent Manning is putting the Broncos toward legitimate Super Bowl contention, I think Manning's former knock of barely being able to win the big one has turned into respect for how he could turn chicken shit into chicken salad.
     
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