NFL Week 15: Mike Phipps' late delivery

I found a gif of Mizzou watching Kaepernick:

 

Ok, that was really funny.

 

I just don't see it. Changing QBs when you're winning is bad policy. precisely because it makes it almost impossible to change back if the new guy hits a few speed bumps. What will Harbaugh do if he's on the wrong end of a blowout Sunday night, a very live possibility?

 

Short of Kaepernick pulling a Phillip Rivers and throwing four picks, it's hard to imagine a scenario where even a Patriots blowout win would cause people to say, "If Alex Smith had started, this never would have happened..."

I know Smith was basically drafted into almost the worst situation a quarterback could have, but at no point during his career, even last year and earlier this year has he looked like someone who merited being a first-round pick, much less a No. 1 overall selection.

It took Smith several years to become the player he was last year and even with all the improvements, he still wasn't that great.

 

Why can't he go back? Other than some old cliched BS there is no reason he can't go back to Smith if need be. Or are we going to here how he has lost Smith and that Smith has checked out. I'm sure Smith would have no problem being asked to go back in.

 

I would totally say the Rams game wouldn't have been close if Smith was the QB. It would have been 10-0 at least, because the Rams scored zero points on offense. Did you watch that game? They lost because of Harbaugh's and Kaepernick's mistakes.

There are quite a few bad Kaepernick plays in addition to the clock management ones I mentioned.

I think they probably lose to the Pats with either guy, but I think I'd be more confident with Smith going into Seattle. Will be very interesting if Kaep struggles as Luck and Schaub have against the Pats.

 

I like that Jim Harbaugh is willing to give a middle finger to tired sports cliches.

"You don't lose your job to injury!"

"You don't change QBs when you're winning!"

"He can't ever go back to Alex Smith now!"

Again, Alex Smith is David Eckstein. Maybe he's not as horrible as the stat nerds suggest. I tend to believe that the chemistry argument, while being almost always dumb in baseball, actually has some merit in football. It's hard to quantify the value of a guy who shows leadership on the football field, doesn't fuck over his defense, and carries himself with the right mix of swagger and humility. Those things actually do matter in football, at least in my opinion, in a way that's typically ridiculous twaddle in baseball.

But why can't he go back to him if he wants to, as JC points out? Is Alex Smith a teenage girl? Has Harbaugh -- after saving his career -- now ruined his confidence beyond repair, and he will actually burst into tears if he is asked to go back into a game? I think that's something sportswriters say because they like the narrative of it. You can never go back on this choice, Jim Harbaugh! So choose wisely!

As I've said, Harbaugh has earned the benefit of the doubt with me. Seriously, before Harbaugh came along, Alex Smith wasn't even good at MANAGING games. He was bad at everything. He's been competent specifically because Harbaugh has held his hand and almost never asked him to do things that bump up against the ceiling of his talents. I get that the clock management stuff is scary, and that Kaep's more mistake prone. But I think Harbaugh watched tape of the Giants game and the Seattle game and thought "I just can't win a fucking Super Bowl with this guy. The degree of difficulty is too high. It's like trying to win a hand of blackjack by sitting on 15."

Everyone keeps talking about that Arizona game when he went 18-of-19, but the two games that preceded it were so, so shitty. And they were against actual good teams. Teams the Niners might face in the playoffs!

 

DD and JC are correct that Harbaugh can go back if he needs to. Hot hand, best chance to win etc. has bought him that credibility. He also is relying on another cliche -- "one game at a time."

The one thing I wonder about with Smith is whether the finger injury was affecting him. He was horrible against the Giants (which is not all that surprising), but it's at least possible that he was kind of unable to throw.

 

Look, there's a reason coaches traditionally have been very reluctant to change quarterbacks. There are considerable downside risks to doing so. The 49ers once had two Hall of Fame quarterbacks on the roster, and they didn't play both of 'em on the hot hand theory. When they wanted to make the change, they traded away the starter.

 

OTOH, if there is anyone who can say "I've been there, man, just be ready," it's Jim Harbaugh.

 

Are you comparing Alex Smith to Montanna and Young?

Do you thing the Broncos should have kept Tebow and not signed Manning? Wait, I actually think you did believe that.

Harbaugh see these guys everyday in practice and realizes that Kaepernick gives them the best chance to go deep in the playoffs. It probably hasn't been done much before because it's a unique situation. Teams don't ususally win with average QB's with potentially better QB's behind them

 

It's the word "potentially" in your post that's the nub of my objection, JC. As for "deep in the playoffs", isn't that where the Niners were LAST year? They lost a conference championship game in OT on a special teams turnover. That's pretty deep as far as I'm concerned.