Official 2011 NBA Draft thread

Here's what gets fans into seats: Winning.

 

True, but a beloved local kid doesn't hurt. Especially in that market.

Yeah, if he sucks, no one will care. But if he does well, they'll go apeshit for him.

 

You don't draft the local kid just to do so. But you also don't pass on the local kid for the same reason. I don't think Jimmer is a reach at No. 12. Most of the early mocks have him going between 10 and 15.

It also depends who else is on the board. I doubt they would take Jimmer if Burks or Leonard or Walker fall to No. 12.

 

Yes, there is a legit reason for Utah to pick Jimmer, namely the need to get some scoring. Stephen Curry is a nice example of a too-small scoring guard who made a decent transition to the NBA. I don't doubt Jimmer can get some points. But Utah needs some defense, too.

I was just shocked to see the SI guy note that attendance would be an issue. Utah draws well, and I think its fans would be sophisticated enough at this point to understand if the Jazz passed on him, as long as they didn't pick a slug.

 

There was a CBA team in my market a few years ago, and the pro hoops beat writer was always flipping out because they didn't have enough "local kids" on the team, even though there weren't really any out there good enough. As if fans were going to show up in droves to watch some guy who played at a local high school five years ago.

Seems like the NBA might be the one pro league where people do show up to see a single player. (Exception: A pitcher in baseball.) I guess you could say that Cleveland fans loved LeBron because he was from the area. But they also loved him because he was winning 66 games and the best player in the league. I imagine they would have warmed up to him if he had grown up in, say, Brooklyn in the same way that they warmed up to him as it was.

 

And Jimmer is Mormon, right? He would fit in just fine -- in the community, at least.

 

Ding ding ding. Every study I've ever seen on sports attendance (like in Baseball Prospectus and one of Hollinger's old books) finds almost no correlation between attendance and certain players, just 1) winning and 2) sustained winning. Crowd ticket sales are savvier than people realize, as they react slowly to fluke starts (see: Cleveland Indians, 2011) and rely a lot on how the team finished the previous year.

 

Interesting that Jimmer is now expected to go in the top 10.

I still would take Derrick Williams over Irving, but I think it's a foregone conclusion that Irving is going No. 1.

It will be interesting to see how much improved the T-wolves are next season with Rubio and Williams, but supposedly they're trying to deal the No. 2 pick for a veteran, which might not be a bad move if they can get the right player.

 

Hollinger's Draft Rater is back, and it's generally pretty good. If you have Insider, you can find it here:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=draftrater-110620

Kylie Irving, assuming he can stay healthy in the pros, is the best PG prospect since Chris Paul, and of the other 12 comparables, only Frank Williams wasn't at least an average player. Kemba Walker and Kawhi Leonard are also low-bust candidates. Hollinger's summary:

 

Is there any truth to Gasol to the T-Wolves for Love and the #2 overall?

F'ing Lakers, that would be a hell of a deal if they could pull it off.

 

That would be an awful deal for Minnesota. Awful.

 

1. Jimmer isn't Mormon

2. He's a lot better a player than you guys are giving him credit for. Offensively, he'll be fine. How he plays defensively is the question