Oswalt to Phils? ... The trade-deadline thread

I have said that, moron.
There are a lot of pitchers over the history of baseball who put a lot of runners on base but did not give up a lot of runs -- Andy Pettitte is among the recent examples.
Guess they were all just lucky.

 

Get in line. You'll be joined by Ruben Amaro Jr.

 

Andy Pettite is a strikeout pitcher with a great bullpen behind him for most of his career. Of course he'll strand more runners than most.

One good indicator of a pitcher's ability to strand runners would be to divide ERA by WHIP. Jamie Moyer, a non-strikeout pitcher, is at 3.21. Nolan Ryan is 2.55. Roger Clemens is 2.65. Pettite, a strikeout guy, but not in those guys' ballpark, is at 2.86. Right about where you'd think he should be.

J.A. Happ last year, with 119 strikeouts in 166 innings and more than 1.1 HRs allowed per nine innings, had a 2.37 ratio of ERA/WHIP. That's about 0.2 better than Nolan Ryan and 0.3 better than Roger Clemens. That is completely, utterly unsustainable.

 

It won't be Singleton. Phillies love him, although he's a 1B now but might be able to play outfield or be traded in a year or two as he gets better. I'm fine giving up Happ. I've seen him pitch a few times and he's good and that's about it. Struggles to throw strikes sometimes and like others have said did a pretty good job pitching with runners on base but that will run out at some point.

If Houston takes on some of Oswalt's salary the Phillies would be thrilled, but it sure doesn't seem like he's all that thrilled to come to the Phillies. Why would he? They've only been to the last two World Series, winning one, and the playoffs three straight years after one playoff appearance in the previous 24 years.

 

ERA/WHIP? That's like comparing apples to hubcaps. Saberbation.

 

Steve Carlton: 2.58
Tom Seaver: 2.55

Oh, my god - J.A. Happ is more dominant than all of those guys!!! It has to be true!!! ERA!!!111!!!

 

Andy Pettitte >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> JA Happ.

Pettitte threw 175 innings in the bigs -- for the YANKEES -- at age 23. He was a 21-game winner at age 24. Happ didn't establish himself in the bigs until age 26. Actually, established is probably an exagerration. All he's had is one decent year, and now he's hurt.

They do both throw left-handed though.

 

Just lots of made up numbers.

No such thing as clutch hitting. Hitting with the bases loaded is the same as hitting with no one on.

 

The question isn't whether there's "such thing" as pitching better or worse with men on base. My guess would be, as you can't generate as much power, that most pitchers pitch worse with men on base.

Yet J.A. Happ - J.A. Happ!!! - turned into Walter Johnson, Sid Finch, and Nolan Ryan rolled into one when men were in scoring position against him last year.

The "clutch" argument is a red herring and a discussion for another day. My point is that nobody is THAT clutch. Certainly not J.A. Happ.

In 2007, at AAA, Happ had an ERA/WHIP of 3.30. In '08, again at AAA, he had an ERA/WHIP of 2.96. This year, rehabbing: 3.41.

Yet last year, he was better than Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, and Roger Clemens at keeping runners where they are. Not just better than those guys. Much better than them.

Which do you think is the aberration?

 

Does this trade make the Phillies seems silly for trading Lee?

 

But in 1987, Doyle Alexander made $650,000. In 1990, Larry Andersen made $965,000. At that money players were a lot more attractive to the teams acquiring them, hence the higher return for them.

 

If you trust your scouts, they aren't lottery tickets.

Why should teams blow up their minor league system for two months of production? Doing that haunted the Yankees througout the 2000s, to the point that they had difficulty making deadline deals with nobody left to trade.