Oswalt to Phils? ... The trade-deadline thread

JC, dropping Jeter to eighth in the order is just as crazy as the half assed comparason I just gave you.

 

He has been the eighth-best hitter in the Yankees lineup this season. Maybe 7th if you like his OBP over Granderson's SLG.

 

Just for the heck of it, here's Jeter's first- and second-half batting average splits over the past decade (OBP numbers are similar, I took BA because it is more of an indicator of his hitting ability than OBP ... one can still draw walks well when his skills decline):

2000: .322/.356 +.034
2001: .294/.332 +.038
2002: .312/.278 -.034
2003: .316/.330 +.014
2004: .277/.311 +.034
2005: .308/.310 +.002
2006: .345/.342 -.003
2007: .336/.306 -.030
2008: .284/.324 +.040
2009: .321/.351 +.030

In six of those seasons, he batted .320 or better in the second half (including three of the last four). Do you still want to drop him in the order? Is it still unreasonable to believe he'll have a pretty good second half?

 

I think the first red flag for those numbers is that Jeter's average in the first column for 2010 is lower than any number from the past decade, and in eight of those years at least 20 points lower.

 

I love these discussions

Yankees fans read: "Jeter has declined" as "Jeter sucks and you should get rid of him."

Non-Yankees fans read: "Jeter was good last year and deserves the benefit of the doubt" as "Jeter is a God and we should ignore his stats and leave him there till he's dead."

Everyone seems to try to paint the other side as extreme to discredit their point of view. Here is reality:

Derek Jeter is not as good a player as he was. He is at an age when performance naturally declines, and his is declining. However, he did have a very good season last year, and as long as the Yankees don't seem be suffering by keeping him in his current spot, there is no reason not to leave him where he is and let him play his way out.

This is not an issue in August 2010.

I'll be very interested to see what kind of deal the Yankees give Jeter when the season ends, and how they handle him in 2011 and 2012.

 

The second half is about 1/4th over and July was his worst month yet. He better start soon.

 

bigpern, you keep pointing to last season as if it is some evidence that he hasn't lost a step this year. As long as you cling to that little fallacy, it is hard to take your argument too seriously.

You do raise a good point about his second halves, but it is August already. He is well into the second half and he is old enough to take the decline seriously.

Edit: Darn, RickStain beat me to the part about being a month into the 2nd half.

 

Very good season does not describe third in the MVP voting. For most gimps, that is a career year.

Just curious, how did Ted Williams do his final few seasons?

And it still kills me that people think batting second or leadoff is nothing more that just getting on base.

 

It amuses me that people want to pretend like it isn't by far the most important part of being any hitter, let alone a tablesetter.

Ted Williams was a) far better than Derek Jeter ever dreamed of being and b) not a middle infielder.

 

Isn't it? Especially for the leadoff hitter?

The number two hitter can get some credit for moving the leadoff guy over and/or for taking some pitches so the leadoff guy can steal.

But getting on base & scoring runs is what a leadoff hitter has to do.

Jeter hasn't been great at getting on base so far.

But Gardner has also slumped, so it's not like he was the perfect candidate to move into the one hole.

And I think a lot of people are concerned if he's ready for the pressure of leading of for the first place Yankees.

 

Jeter leads of the game with a single.

Announcer (Al Leiter maybe) just said that Jeter is hitting .315 at home and .237 on the road.

I hadn't realized that. What could account for it?

 

And Swisher continues to show why he needs to stay in the two-hole.