Oswalt to Phils? ... The trade-deadline thread

"Andy Pettite is a strikeout pitcher ..."


Andy Pettitte career K/9 IP = 6.6
JA Happ 2009 K/9 IP = 6.45


Damn those facts.

 

Andy Pettite, career ERA/WHIP: 2.86
J.A. Happ, 2009 ERA/WHIP: 2.37

You told me Pettite is some kind of zen guru at stranding runners.

So, looking at those numbers, what does that make J.A. Happ?

I'm talking about 2009 only, not the rest of his professional career when he was an average joe at stranding minor league bums on base. Because 2009 was clearly the real deal.

 

Still not sure what ERA/WHIP proves.

And what does it have to do with you saying Pettitte is a strikeout ppitcher and Happ isnlt when their K/9 are virtually the same.

 

It's fast shorthand to see if a pitcher is particularly good or bad at stranding runners.

Too low, taking into consideration strikeouts and home runs, and it's probably a little bit of luck. Too high, taking those considerations into account, and it's probably a little bit of bad luck.

Cole Hamels was unlucky last year, for example.

J.A. Happ was the guy who won the lottery three times in a year.

 

Cole Hamels pitched badly a good part of last year. It had nothing to do with luck.

 

Does J.A. Happ have a magical ability to strand runners on base?

 

Not saying they should. It's obvious teams are learning that they shouldn't. The return for a superstar player is diminishing by the year. The Smoltz and Bagwell trades are always held up as the model for what you can get by trading away your vets. But those trades came 20 years ago. It's a different era. Now the superstars have such high price tags and teams realize they don't come with a guarantee of a pennant or your money back. So they're offering up mediocre players in their 20s or teenage prospects.

The only real top prospect traded in recent years was Kyle Drabek in the Halladay deal last year. The Indians lucked out when they got Carlos Santana for Casey Blake a couple years ago. And that's why teams take the chane on the lottery tickets. But take a look at any list of top prospects. Those guys just aren't for sale. They have become more valuable than Oswalts and Sabathias.

 

Smoak?

 

The Rangers might wind up very glad they trade him.

 

Where did I say that? I basically said some pitchers have more of a knack for getting out of jams than others and it isn't all luck as you say.
Happ has shown that ability. Will it last? I have no idea and neither do you.

 

Imagine if baseball ever had a salary cap. None of those prospects would ever move. Ever.