Oswalt to Phils? ... The trade-deadline thread

And that's another reason baseball is better off without a salary cap.

 

I think there are a couple things you can look at. Strikeouts. Ground balls (because you can induce more double plays). Whether a guy can retain his stuff out of the stretch.

Here is what I don't think it is: Cunning. Guile. Balls. Character!!1!

I do have an idea of whether J.A. Happ can keep it up. He can't. Not at that pace, certainly. And not at an above-average pace, looking at his very own track record through several seasons in the minor leagues.

 

You think? I'm of two minds. I'd like to see GMs have to really navigate their way with these kinds of decisions. On the other hand, you see a team like the Chicago Blackhawks just decimated after winning a Stanley Cup, and I'm not so sure that that is a desirable alternative.

 

Again, you're putting words in my mouth that I never said.

And if you can unequivocally say that Happ can not keep it up, you should be making millions in the stock market (even in a bad market if you can predict the future so perfectly)

 

Blackhawks could have kept their team together. They knew this was coming. But they wanted guys like Hossa and Campbell more than they wanted to keep their homegrown, secondary contributors.

(Plus, reports of their demise have been *greatly* exaggerated. They kept their five best forwards and four best defensemen. That goes a long way in hockey).

 

If there was a futures market on baseball players, I'm sure I could make a fortune shorting guys like Happ. If all the other smart people didn't beat me to it

 

Given 10 or more starts in a season, J.A. Happ will never again have a .141 average on balls hit in play against him with runners in scoring position. Never. Unequivocally. Guaranteed.

 

The market knew that Happ was an aberration. Look at his ADP in fantasy baseball this year compared to his ERA last year. The market figures it out. The Phillies know it, too.

 

When did Happ have that average over an entire season? Never.
And what do you count as high-leverage situations?

 

I don't know what exactly is used to come up with the high-leverage stat.

But I will use this simple one: Last year, with runners in scoring position, hitters only batted .158 against J.A. Happ. This was with a meager 1.78 SO/BB ratio on his part.

 

Oh, you mean clutch situations.
Certainly there is some luck invloved but there is at least an equal amount of talent involved.

 

My point is that no one is THAT clutch. Nobody.