President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

This should turn the tide.

https://www.wlns.com/news/magic-johnson-to-appear-at-whitmer-rally-in-east-lansing/amp/

 

May be complete BS but it's a point to ponder, especially when Politico and many GOP polls are getting more exposure, particularly in key races.

From: Mike Lux
Re: Democratic chances in the 2022 election
Date: November 1, 2022
I appreciate the hard work political journalists are doing in the lead-up to Election Day, and the role you play in trying to keep the American public informed.
But having been in DC for 30 years now, I know there is a tendency for a certain kind of conventional wisdom to develop and congeal into a bubble as hard as rock, and I would note that this conventional wisdom is often wrong. I certainly don’t get things right all the time, but I was one of the few in DC who predicted the Dems would pick up seats in the 1998 election, that we would win both the House and Senate back in 2006, and that Trump was probably going to win in 2016, so I have real life experience with the conventional wisdom being wrong.
I think it is wrong this year, and I want to push DC reporters and pundits in this last week of the cycle to take a close look at your assumptions and data, and really consider that you might be wrong.
I’m not making this point so that you all look wiser by hedging your bets. I think it is important to say that the narrative you are have decided on is both discouraging voting, and is setting up Republicans to say the election is stolen if Democrats do better than you all are projecting. I am pushing back here both for the sake of Democrats and for democracy.
So let’s talk for a moment about what we are seeing in the field. I am not going to geek out here and drop a bunch of numbers on you because I want to keep this brief and there are plenty of people like Simon Rosenberg, Tom Bonier at TargetSmart, and Mike Podhorzer who have been doing this analysis, but all the evidence is that voting is going to be at record levels for a midterm, matching or exceeding 2018. And yes, Republicans are turning out in big numbers, but that was also true in 2018 and 2020, and Democrats still won. Democrats tend to do well in high turnout elections: the most dramatic bumps in voting in recent history were 2008, 2018, and 2020 -- three Democratic wins. There are simply more Democratic voters than Republican voters and when everyone votes in big numbers, we are likely to win.
I would add that there is not any evidence I am seeing that Republicans are voting at higher rates than Democrats. Democratic leaning groups, including African-Americans and women, are voting in high numbers compared to even 2018. According to the groups who track youth voting most closely, youth voting will very likely be above 2018 numbers.
Let me turn to the polling issue. I hope you all saw the Joy Reid clip last night where Simon Rosenberg was talking about how Republican pollsters have flooded the zone in battleground states with publicly released polls. They are skewing the numbers in these polls because most of those polls have turnout assumptions favoring more Republican voters. But even with that skewed data, what the polls are showing is closely contested races in battleground House and Senate. The nationwide generic ballot has remained within the margin of error for months, contradicting the idea of a Democratic collapse.
I would also note that in the 21 races thought to be the closest toss-ups, according to the most recent public polling, the Democratic candidate leads in 17 of them, is tied in two others, and is behind in only two. In seven of those races, the margin is five points or more. Again, this doesn’t seem like a collapse to me.
It is true that Republican super PACs are spending a lot of money in normally safe Democratic districts. That isn’t because most of those districts are places where we are in trouble: it is because they have a lot more money from billionaires, and they want to keep the DCCC playing defense where they shouldn’t have to do so. It’s smart strategy, but evidence of nothing except their enormous amounts of billionaire cash.
My partner Bob Creamer just released this video talking about the early vote and the evidence on why Democrats are going to surprise a lot of people. I know that in the days to come we will see more evidence that Democrats have a real chance to win this election. My ask to the reporters and pundits is that they pay attention to the evidence and leaven their gloom and doom for Democrats narrative with some facts that suggest the conventional wisdom just might be wrong.

 

Bullied out of running. Sad, really. I was wanting to see him get boatraced in 2024. But at his age, he’s got five or six more POTUS cycles left for a run.

 

Tom Cotton.

 

Guy who would never be elected in a bazillion years says he won’t run.

Cotton is such a empty suit of talking points.

 

I just got a text asking me to vote for Bill Lee.
Here was my response:
Bill Lee is the most ignorant governor in the history of our state. He is more corrupt than Ray Blanton. It amazes me that such a stupid son of a bitch wants to destroy education. The only people dumber than Bill Lee are the people who vote for him and those who try to get others to vote for his bible thumping bullshit. He can sit on Hillsdale's cock and spin. In fact, I hope someone shoves one of the books he wants to ban straight up his ass.

I guess they put me down as undecided.

 

“I want to keep this brief.” I’d hate to see what he would write if he wanted to really elaborate!

 

He’s staying in the closet. NTTAWWT.

 

Lie, lie, lie

Rick Scott claims he doesn't 'know one Republican who wants to change' Social Security after Ron Johnson floated proposals to put the program's spending in flux

 

I do agree with his points though. If turnout is higher than normal and the GOP does well - fine. But the conventional analysis HAS been threatening to democracy if the GOP wave doesn't happen - as we all have seen in the recent past when everyone predicted a tight election and the GOP lost.

 

Dan Pfeiffer’s newsletter this morning was on the same Republicans-are-flooding-the-zone-with-nonsense-polls stuff.

How about we ignore the polls in the last two weeks and just see how the results turn out? There are some countries that ban polls in the closing days/hours of an election. It’s not the worst idea.

 

As CPP says, Cotton is the bobble-throated slapdick from the state of Arkansas.