President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Let's not overthink this. If Biden decides not to run, and barring a major health problem, why would he, the party standard bearer is almost certainly going to be Harris. Anyone else would be Democrats repudiating the Biden administration, and as we saw last night, they're not up for that (as always, as of now).

 

Kamala is pretty much Humphrey to Biden's LBJ at this point. Though it will be difficult for anyone to run against Harris, i don't think even the loyalists feel Biden's presidency thus far has been successful enough to simply anoint Harris - I can imagine the hand-wringing about anyone running against the party's highest ranking black woman - unless polls show her losing badly to DeSantis and Trump.

 

Not mentioned in any of this is that Rand Paul steamrolled to re-election without breaking a sweat.
Way to go Kentucky. You deserve him.

 

Gavin Newsom has been angling for a run and it would be interesting to see if he’d wait 8 years for Harris to run or if he’d do it now.

 

Here's my edumicated guess: Gavin cuts a deal with Feinstein, who retires and Gavin names himself to her seat...then rides that for a few years until Harris flames out one way or the other.

 

Plus, the fact that they travel in the same political circles in SF.There are probably some interesting backroom discussions going on. Remember, Harris didn't even get her campaign to Iowa despite being a big campaign launch. But she's received a lot of bad press, very little good press, and I have to think a lot of the people throwing dirt her way are Dems who just don't want her to be anointed Biden's successor.

 

re: Trump vs. DeSantis, I think Trump wipes the floor with him, primarily because he attracts a whole bunch of fucking whack jobs and racists that the Diet Trump candidates (DeSantis, Abbott, Haley) do not. They can recognize that Trump is the Real Deal Racist Uncle type, he's not fakin' it like Ron. Since Republicans now need these voters to win elections, they're tethered to Trump, unless they're willing to take some actual Ls in 2024 or beyond.

 

Here's how I think Harris could win - She just needs to embarrass Trump on stage. Talk over him. Mock him. Out-Trump Trump. Make him look like the fucking clown he is. I don't think Biden can do it, because fundamentally, Biden is a decent guy who wants to make deals. (And also, because he's about 90 years old, like Trump is.) Clinton couldn't do it because it would have been popular, and she's deeply allergic to doing anything that might be popular. Obama did it constantly during and after his presidency, but unfortunately, I don't think he can run again.

 

And it isn't as if the GOP trust Trump with not wanting to damage other people for the sake of the party. That's his brand. He'll take DeSantis down with him.

As for Harris, she's not going to get to a debate stage with Trump without proving she can take him down before getting there. It might be a good play for her politically. Just beome a wild card, shoot from the hip, damn the blowback politician.
She tries hard, too hard, to give measured responses, but people don't get the sense that's what she truly feels. Even the attack on Biden during the debates didn't come off well, because people felt it was too obviously scripted.

 

Gavin Newsom is ready right now to live in the national limelight.

I would pay cash money to watch a 1 on 1 between Gav and Ron.

 

I also think DeSantis is overdue for a scandal of some kind. His rise was a little too fast and easy.