President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

In both 2016 and 2020, polls underestimated support for Trump. The 2020 election was supposed to have been more lopsided than it was.

Pollsters: ‘Impossible’ to say why 2020 polls were wrong

According to the report, national polls of the presidential race conducted in the final two weeks of the election were off by an average of 4.5 percentage points, while the state polls were off by just over 5 points. Most of the error was in one direction: Looking at the vote margin, the national polls were too favorable to now-President Joe Biden by 3.9 points, and the state polls were 4.3 points too favorable for Biden.

Most of the error came from underestimating Trump’s support, as opposed to overestimating Biden’s. Comparing the final election results to the poll numbers for each candidate, Trump’s support was understated by a whopping 3.3 points on average, while Biden’s was overstated by a point — turning what looked like a solid Biden lead into a closer, if still decisive, race.

All that said, I still think Biden beats Trump. And I'm not sure anyone else would.

 

Works for me.

 

She's not licensed in Georgia, so her law license is out of the court's jurisdiction. A felony conviction in Georgia almost certainly assures disbarment in Texas, though.

 

Deal!

 

She's was pretty much right in the middle of the plan. The people who flip first get the best deal. I bet Trump's lawyers shit a squealing worm when they heard.

 

In my experience, the DA won't even start offering a plea deal until it gets to jury selection. It's truly like Let's Make A Deal without the silly costumes. The DA knows the value of the evidence, how confident they are in securing a guilty verdict and what they can offer to the defense to settle without a trial. They get the grand jury to indict with the maximum possible number of counts and then assume the defendant will cave.

My county DA said he's probably gone to trial less than 100 times in the 20-plus years he's been a prosecutor.

As a defendant, you're in a precarious position. Do you take the deal offered by the DA or hope your lawyer can convince 12 people who couldn't get out of jury duty of your innocence? If you lose, the DA is going to ask the jury for the maximum, and once again, you're hoping they seem like lenient kind of folks.

In my case, six felony convictions would have added up to perhaps 8-10 years in state prison -- although the judge might have lessened the sentence for first offender. Instead, we settled for the 60-day jail sentence, four years of probation, a fine and community service. Plus, the Georgia First Offender Act means no conviction and nothing on my permanent record. It sucks, but it doesn't suck as bad as it could have been.

The fact that Sidney Powell -- who lied about a Presidential election and tampered with voting machines -- isn't even getting close to what I had to negotiate for fighting with two crazy old people over a motorhome is absurd.

 

What a cluster.

 

If that's what it takes to tell Gaetz and Co to go pound sand ... but yeah.

 

Jury selection was to start tomorrow, so that tracks.

 

Jake Tapper has a sock puppet here.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1715105300343066857?s=20

 

OK, that's hilarious.