President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Four years ago the Jan. 6 insurrection was fresh in minds and the mass vaccine program was just getting started. For whatever polls are worth (very little) that gap was likely due to those factors. (Edit to add: messed up the math so, um, never mind about this part)

It’s frustrating but I think large swaths have tuned out, as they always do, and have back-burnered how much of a demented asshole lunatic trump is. They’ll be reminded. Will it be enough for Biden to win? I don’t know.

There are very real numbers that show trump underperforming in these primaries, and the trumplican party has underperformed and been soundly beaten in a several election cycles and many special elections.

None of that seems to be accounted for, and as someone else noted, I think Roe voters are being largely unaccounted for.

But no matter how it turns out, I will guarantee one thing: it will be perceived and reported to be tight. The horse race narrative will never be defeated.

On a related note, cable news of every slant and political social media are absolutely awful and neither really reflects reality.

 

C'mon.

 

I do wonder what the Biden campaign’s polling shows. This time four years ago they were out telling people not to take at face value all the polls that showed Biden with a comfortable lead. We’re not hearing that now.

 

No. That was THREE years ago.

Four years ago Biden had just won Super Tuesday, and Trump had a 38% approval rating (sound familiar?).

 

Maybe all trials should be by popular vote.

 

Ah fuck. It’s been a long day.

edit to add: other than my poor math skills in the open, rest I think is true.

 

Corrected.

 

JMO...and only that...

I think the SOTU speech might be a fork in the road moment for Biden. As in, if he's on his game, he's going to surge in the polls. But if he struggles or doesn't project whatever, his team may offer an exit ramp out of the race.

LBJ announced on March 31, 1968 he wasn't running again, and while I know things have changed drastically in politics, this feels like Biden's moment to fight off the ropes.

The SOTU is his campaign speech.

 

Lone wolves have been the greater threat since the 1980s.

 

What sucks is because of electoral college math, Biden +1 or +2 probably loses, too. +3 could go either way.

So it's not like he has 2-4 points to make up. More like 5-8 points.