President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Fun with numbers (and why turnout is critical) ...

Playing with the Georgia SOS data again this morning. Turnout so far is just over 2.6M, or about 36 percent of active registered voters. Now Georgia is a fascinating case study in that there are 159 counties, but eight of the largest 11 skew heavily Democratic -- and account for 4 of every 10 voters in the state. Atlanta, Savannah and Macon are the Gullivers while the rest of the counties are the Lilliputians.

So I dumped the county-by-county ballots to date into a spreadsheet and started messing around.

Worst case scenario first: If you take the smallest 144 counties and assume Trump gets 80 percent of that total, and Harris gets just 60 percent of the votes in the largest 15 counties so far, Trump's ahead by 350,000 votes. (Again, that's nowhere close to the 2020 percentages but it does show how the rural counties can offset Atlanta if their percentage of turnout is greater.)

Now let's move the numbers: Let's give Trump 3 out of every 4 voters in the rural areas (still slightly above 2020) and Harris 65 percent in the largest 15. Suddenly, Trump's lead is down to 100,000. And if you give Harris 2 out of every 3 voters instead, Trump's lead is 40,000. At 68.5 percent, Harris pulls dead even.

Biden got 85 percent of the vote in Clayton, 83 in DeKalb, 73 in Fulton, 58 in Gwinnett and 56 in Cobb. And Trump's advantage in the rural counties was less than 7 in 10 in 2020.

So without getting even more granular -- which I might do as we get closer and more data is available -- small percentage gains in the metro have huge implications on the election. And Harris should have more potential voters left than Trump. However, that requires Harris to keep pace with Biden's margins, and I'm not certain she is.

 

Soldifies his hold on the idiots who listen to brofluencers like Rogan, Shawn Ryan and Pat McAfee.

 

When’s Garland going to come out with his indictment….?

 

I thought MAGA ignoring Jan 6 made us look like a 3rd world country, saying this now only reinforces my thought.

 

Two weeks, part of the concept of the infrastructure week plan.

 

Especially when it led him to leave a crowd of supporters in a key battleground state waiting for hours.

 

Trump has already been indicted. Like quite awhile ago.

 

It’s amazing how America wants to wine, dine, woo, make sweet love to and turn our women into mothers yet lacks the courage, conviction, and morals to vote them to the most important seat of power in the universe.

We could have the perfect woman for POTUS and she would be trashed the likes of Hitler.

We are emotionally stunted forevermore.

 

At least for the moment, the democracy still functions. As I mentioned earlier, my wife and I took our daughter to vote for the first time this morning. I know a poll worker who said we should be there when the poll opens if we want to vote on a weekend, but my wife didn't listen. We showed up about 35 minutes after they opened. I promise I only said, "I told you so" once or twice as we waited in a long line. My daughter was people-watching, trying to guess how people would vote. One couple removed any doubt. The husband called out "Harris!" and his wife briefly chanted "Kamala" as they walked out. A few people chuckled. Nobody complained. Everyone was civil and patient. They remained that way even when there was a problem with printing the ballots right as my daughter and I were waiting for ours.

She was so excited. She couldn't wait to add "I voted" to the many stickers on her laptop, but just being able to participate and be heard in that small way meant a lot to her. Yes, I'm sharing a proud dad moment, but it's not just that. I know many of us have little moments like that, but I think it's worthwhile to appreciate them.

 

My son is gonna get screwed by his birthday. He'll turn 18 about two weeks after the next election.

 

If Donald Trump gets back into office, he'll bring in goons who will let him do whatever he wants....and he'll let them do whatever THEY want. You won't want either.