President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

For whatever it’s worth, polls in Arizona have put it around 10% to 12%.

 

I’m happy for anyone smarter to than me to correct me, but if that ends up to be accurate, Harris would win Arizona comfortably, right?

But I also don’t know where she could be losing support in other areas to cut into that. Or where trump could be gaining to offset. I can’t imagine there’s enough of the new young bro vote to counteract that.

All the national polling has it deadlocked. I wonder how well a Republican crossover number can be captured, if it is indeed significant, in those national polls.

 

maumann, you're going to have more accurate exit polling numbers than the networks!

 

Not really. Republicans still significantly outnumber Democrats in Arizona, so even with the massive crossover the polls are showing a dead heat.

 

Up until the racist rally at MSG, the Trump camp had been pitching a ton of tech-aimed stories about Barron's behind-the-scenes impact, especially with the comedy bros.

In other news, this is a fantastic look at the rise of Tony Hinchcliffe, and it ends with this: "If the Trump campaign booked Hinchcliffe to convey to his audience that a vote for them is a vote to protect the uninhibited comedy they’d see at a Kill Tony show, they may just have gotten that message across." https://www.vulture.com/article/tony-hinchcliffe-trump-rally-roast-jokes.html

 

Yeah, huge factor that didn’t occur to me. And shows the importance of local knowledge.

 

People talk nationally like Arizona is now a purple state since we have two Democratic senators (or did) and virtually all statewide offices are held by Democrats. The reality is it's a Republican state but not a MAGA state. You have to be MAGA to get through a Republican primary, but you're probably going to lose in the general. Ask Kari Lake, who is going to get her ass kicked on election night.

 

Nevada is troubling because the Trumpists keep building their lead day after day. Ralston seems to be on the verge of calling it.
I know it’s a buffer state. Harris doesn’t have to get it. But I’m not keen on the first swing state going to Trump.

 

I do wonder what the thought process is of the ticket splitters in these Senate races. We hate the MAGA mindset, but not the guy who jolted the monster to life?

 

Nevada has been a true toss-up and the early data from really well-informed people like Ralston is way different than recent trends. It definitely feels like something is brewing there.

 

I’m certain I will never understand the voter who can’t vote for Kari Lake but will vote for trump.

 

Do tell.