President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

If pissed off Puerto Ricans is what turns this cruise ship just enough to get it on the right course my neighbors will be subjected to this for a day.

 

That's also cryptozoology, not crypto currency.

 

Not looking for kudos, but as a former Republican, I don’t see myself going back. I enjoy the Democrats too much now. A lot of us do.

 

I won't bore/freak out anybody with the latest simulation for Georgia, but it shows Trump 50/Harris 49/Others 1. So my amateurish spreadsheet is probably similar to what the professionals are modeling right now.

I still think Trump wins Georgia by the skin of his bronzer. HOWEVER, because we're talking tenths of a percent, there are a number of unknown variables in play that could factor into the final totals.

1. With two more early voting days remaining, it's quite possible at least half of all registered Georgia voters will have cast ballots already. What exactly does that mean for Election Day? A record-breaking turnout on Tuesday, particularly if it skews younger and non-White, could push Harris closer to even. Right now, the raw data suggests Republicans -- perhaps because of the fear-mongering over stolen elections -- are voting early at a pace equal to or ahead of Democrats.

There is a theory that early voting will make for a smaller-than-normal turnout on Election Day and the totals will end up about the same as 2020. However, I saw an unconfirmed Twitter post yesterday claiming over 500,000 people have voted for the first time in this election, which would indicate a much greater turnout than even the 2020 record.

The key numbers to watch Tuesday night are 5 million votes and 69 percent turnout. Those were the totals in 2020, and the number of registered voters hasn't changed significantly since then because the Georgia GOP eliminated "inactive" voters since 2022. As of this morning, the 2024 numbers are 3.5 million and 48.3 percent. The more that total exceeds 5 million, the greater the odds for Harris because the majority of "potential" votes left would be in Democratic leaning counties.

If it gets above 5.5 million or even approaches 6, those will be mainly Harris votes because the rural counties are already close to maxing out their turnout.

2. Nobody truly knows how demographics in Georgia have shifted significantly since 2020. Because it's so close, just a single percentage point difference in voter preference in any of the major Atlanta counties could make enough difference to swing the election. Harris could be underperforming in the suburbs compared to Biden. Or she might be pulling better numbers with women, who are maintaining a 55-45 pace in early voting. Minorities, particularly the Hispanic vote, are under-represented in early voting so turnout Tuesday is critical. It's all a huge guess based on previous polling numbers. But this election isn't like any other previous election, so there's that to consider.

3. It won't be over on Election Night but hopefully Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania handily (and perhaps North Carolina as icing on the cake) so losing Georgia won't be the back-breaker. Or she pulls off an unexpected win because the right people vote at the right time.

I'll run one more simulation when early voting ends, but I'm guessing the raw data won't change significantly. But we're talking a difference of 20,000-50,000 votes either way out of over 5-plus million.

 

Buzz off

 

Merrick Garland certainly won't want to act with any urgency, because Faux Fascist Noise might say he was being unfair, and the top priority always of the attorney general must be to avoid Faux Noise crying they are being unfair.

 

As per the NBC site, women are still voting more than men early, with a ten percent lead. Again, no real pattern, the same in blue and red and swing, abortion on and off the ballot.

 

I will die on this hill: None of the people best suited to promote the message of the Democratic Party have any formal affiliation with the Democratic Party or their lame ass official consultants. From the subhed of a Mark Cuban story:

https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...an-harris-democrats-economic-message-00186357

 

And I will die on this hill: Fuck Politico, now and forever.