President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Turnout is everything and I'm much more confident that Harris is doing better than the pollsters think. You can't watch a Harris rally not believe there's a groundswell of support for her (and an anti-Trump) that's not being reflected by the people who want this election to be closer than it really is.

This story sums up a lot of what my gut is telling me. Harris is going to win the nationwide vote by at least 3 percent and has an edge in a majority of swing states. The fact that YouGov has taken Michigan off the list of swing states is a huge tell.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4967253-kamala-harris-donald-trump-yougov-election-model/

As of this morning, more than 4 million Georgia voters have been to the polls, or close to 55 percent, with nearly 300,000 voting yesterday as early in person wraps up. The record turnout here for a presidential election is 69 percent, accomplished four years ago. What does that mean? Counties like Towns, Oconee and Dawson are over 80 percent turnout already. While those votes are overwhelmingly Trump, those counties have fewer than 20,000 total voters. There aren't that many potential Trump votes left in the rural counties.

But because the massive metro Atlanta counties are keeping pace with that 55 percent turnout number, his lead over Harris -- if you overlay the 2020 percentages -- is less than 1 percent.

My spreadsheet has it Trump 49.8, Harris 49.0, Stein 1.2. Or in real numbers, Trump is up about 35,000 votes if nothing has changed from 2020. And I think that's probably not factoring in Dobbs, Republicans for Harris and the enthusiasm shown in Georgia rallies. There's a good chance Harris is doing better than Biden did in some places, perhaps not as well in the northern suburbs.

On the other hand, Democratic strongholds like Chatham, Clarke, Clayton, DeKalb, Fulton and to a lesser extent -- Cobb and Gwinnett -- are tracking right on that 55 percent figure. What does that mean? There are still tens of thousands of people in those areas who may be waiting for Election Day to cast their ballots. And those will trend blue.

Because the rural counties will get their ballots counted quicker, watch for Trump to hold a lead early in the evening but that starts to narrow once the big Atlanta tallies roll in. The higher the total turnout, the better the odds are that Harris wins Georgia. My spreadsheet says 72 percent is the tipping point. We'll see on Tuesday night.

 

Forget platform planks....THIS is the difference between two parties:

Dems say they will certify a Trump victory — even the ones who think the 14th Amendment disqualifies him

 

I’d like to see Trump get this question.