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President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Moderator1, Nov 12, 2016.

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  1. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    It started that way, but add the pandemic effect on global demand to make it worse.
     
    Michael_ Gee, Mar 18, 2020
    #167185
    sgreenwell likes this.
  2. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    The supply chain problem is that China completely shut down and the US imports a lot of its inputs from there. If you are a widget maker in the US, even if your factory wasn't being shut down because of social distancing, you are having trouble sourcing the stuff that goes into the widgets at anything near the prices you were paying a year or two ago.
     
    The Big Ragu, Mar 18, 2020
    #167186
  3. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    That's where it started. Russia was tired of taking production cuts to prop-up the market so that U.S. shale producers could continue to take market share. They were willing to absorb short-term pain for long-term gain. They played chicken with the Saudis, and then the Saudis did a 180, slashed their prices 20 percent and told everyone they were going to ramp up production. Combine that with a massive decline in demand thanks to the pandemic, and . . .
     
    BTExpress, Mar 18, 2020
    #167187
  4. sgreenwell

    sgreenwell Well-Known Member

    Planet Money had a good episode on this - Basically, yes. In recent years, OPEC has been partnering with Russia to set oil prices, because fracking in the U.S. has increased our supply so much that OPEC didn't have the leverage it used to have. However, Russia and OPEC have had disagreements on *who* is going to cut supply - in order to increase prices - and the end result was that Russia and the OPEC members were going to pump as much as they could. Combined with China suddenly not needing as much oil (Covid19), and prices are rock bottom. Still though - They talked with a Kansas guy at the end who owns an oil field, and he said he was getting offers on the property, so its not like the industry is bottoming out forever.

    btw - I strongly recommend Planet Money to everyone, they've been doing some good stuff the past couple weeks, and just in general. Really digestible 15 to 30 minute episodes that aren't too econ-wonky.
     
    sgreenwell, Mar 18, 2020
    #167188
    BTExpress, TigerVols and Double Down like this.
  5. 3_Octave_Fart

    3_Octave_Fart Well-Known Member

    Pizzagate was trending again.
    We can defeat the virus and vote out Trump but we will always have a moron problem in this country.
     
    3_Octave_Fart, Mar 18, 2020
    #167189
    HanSenSE and Driftwood like this.
  6. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    When you simplify it to that, you don't get at what the actual problem is. The problem between Russia and Saudi Arabia exists because there has been a massive oversupply of oil to the world over the last 5 to 10 years, and it has put prices under pressure. And in the last year, demand started slowing down too, which was putting further pressure on prices.

    The MAIN reason for that oversupply. ... The United States. We suppressed interest rates and created a debt binge, and one place that played out was in the bakken, eagle ford and permain basins, where we did a ton of shale oil drilling and patted ourselves on the back for making ourselves energy independent. The problem was that we weren't really creating independence. Pulling oil out of the ground that way was very expensive compared to what it costs the middle east and Russia to get their oil out of the ground. But we masked that expense with cheap, mispriced debt. What the Federal Reserve created. In order for those shale oil drillers to stay on their hampster wheel, the price of oil needed to be way higher for them to service their debt (even at artificially low interest rates) and earn anything. But paradoxically, the mispriced debt destroyed all the market signals and made it so that way too many of them gorged on the cheap debt and drilled. ... and all of the supply DROVE DOWN the price of oil. And all they have now is the mountain of debt they took on.

    This has hurt Saudi Arabia, Russia (and lots of others). The Saudi economy is entirely dependent on oil and becaue it is a dictatorship, they need to provide social services with some of that oil money to prevent riots and a coup. Russia is a bit less dependent on oil, but its still hugely important.

    At the last OPEC meeting, the Saudis wanted to go to the same old playbook, and try to get everyone to reduce production to boost the price. And the Russians said no more, that isn't feasible anymore and were essentially arguing that what they need to do is let the price crater to bankrupt all of those American shale drillers. The Saudis will benefit from that, too, ultimately, so the spat was more about process than about what their problems were. Saudi Arabia and Russia are both falling victim of the same thing.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2020
    The Big Ragu, Mar 18, 2020
    #167190
    FileNotFound likes this.
  7. garrow

    garrow Well-Known Member

     
    garrow, Mar 18, 2020
    #167191
  8. Azrael

    Azrael Well-Known Member

    seriously

     
    Azrael, Mar 18, 2020
    #167192
  9. DanielSimpsonDay

    DanielSimpsonDay Well-Known Member

    how embarrasing for the media
     
    DanielSimpsonDay, Mar 18, 2020
    #167193
    ChrisLong and Fred siegle like this.
  10. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    For now. But imports from China are non-existent right now. And the US has basically shuttered the migrant worker VISA program because they think the Hispanics who hand-pick our fruits and vegetables are carrying the virus. Planting season is gearing up or in full swing in lots of the nation - what happens if farmers get hit with this and can get crops in the ground?
     
    Inky_Wretch, Mar 18, 2020
    #167194
  11. sgreenwell

    sgreenwell Well-Known Member

    Numbers posted by Trump are always fishy, but - Isn't the story kind of going to be how many people just leave the Republican party? Who cares if he gets 95 percent of X voters, if the X is way less than the last election. Like, it's hard for me to imagine a ton of moderates and/or true independents turning out for Trump in 2020, especially since Biden isn't anywhere close to as unpopular and caustic a candidate as Hilary Clinton. Trump barely won the last election, even against her, and I don't even know what he can hang his hat on for reelection now that the stock market is shitting the bed.
     
    sgreenwell, Mar 18, 2020
    #167195
    Tweener likes this.
  12. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    Those numbers were totally made up. The "record approval among Republicans" has always been false, GW Bush after 9/11 was higher than Trump at any time although Trump's GOP ratings are high. Guy lies about the weather. Imagine how he lies about the subject closest to his heart, how many people love him.
     
    Michael_ Gee, Mar 18, 2020
    #167196
    sgreenwell likes this.
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