President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

If anything happens to Biden now, Trump wins by default no matter who the nominee is. Sanders or not-Sanders, the party's hopelessly split and therefore loses big. The only possible exception to that would be if Sanders himself would support a party unity candidate who wasn't him. Chances of that are nil.

 

Trump and his flunkies aren’t exactly the brightest bulbs in the box, so them wanting Sanders in the GE means little. Sanders is polling almost 20 points higher than both Biden and Trump among independents, which is a larger voting bloc (40%) than both Democrats and Republicans (about 30% each). Sanders also polls far better than Trump among POC and voters under 45.

 

Maybe. I think the party could win under Sanders if something happened to Biden if the party unites behind him to win one for the Gipper. You're right that if Sanders takes a shit on the process, it's a moot point. He probably will take a shit on everything, which is why I think the Dems would need to unite behind Bernie publicly. And who knows, the Bernie Bros might actually help get out the vote.

 

Another point. Sanders is the same age as Biden and has an underlying health condition, a heart attack five months ago. Who's to say something won't happen to him? This is all speculation of the oddest sort. Primary's over. Biden won. Sanders lost. Now it's on to the general. Criticisms of Biden should stop comparing him to Bernie. Might as well compare him to FDR. He ain't gonna be the nominee either.

 

There's no way, in this world or the upside down, that 40 percent of voters are independents. A lot of people may say they are, but I think that's just so they don't have to say which party they really identify with. Much like the exit polling had Clinton kicking the everyloving shit out of Trump, people didn't want to admit they voted for Trump, and that skewed the poll.

The myth of the undecideds and independents is trotted out every election, and it's bullshit every election.

 

This has been extensively researched and the findings are as follows. Most self-ID'd independents actually almost always vote for one of the two parties. At most 10 percent of them truly go back and forth. No surprise, these are both the ones least informed about politics and least likely to vote. BUT, the number of people who self-ID as independents has grown because both parties are unpopular in general.

 

Exclusive: U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before virus outbreak

 

That story is four days old. It's been posted here two or three times already.

 

No, the exit polling from the 2016 election didn’t show HRC crushing Trump.

2016 election results: Exit polls

Regardless of whether 40 percent really are “independents,” that’s what 40 percent claim to be, according to a March 2020 Gallup poll:

Party Affiliation

 

I'm not even really arguing the "Sanders by default" angle.

There are 28 more primary contests. A Biden dropout before June 2 means Sanders not only has the "most" delegates, but he will almost certainly pass the threshold to clinch. After June 2 is a different story.

 

That anyone would trust national polling, especially when you get to cross tabs, this far out from an election is fucking ludicrous.

Bernie won't be the nominee. I don't know how many times it needs to be said, but I'll say it again: Bernie won't be the nominee.

 

What if it's not Bernie . . . or Biden?

Interesting to consider.