President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

I'm counting 1,223 deaths and 820,791 cases (82,791 x 10, according to Nate Silver's experts)

0.149%

 

From 300 on Sunday to 1223 today. What’s the marginal rate of increase ?

 

Next up in the waive wave: Age of consent laws.

 

You realize that the deaths do not exactly correspond to the cases time-wise right? Italy 80,000+ cases, 8,100 deaths; even world-wide 520,000 cases; 24,000 deaths, that's well beyond 0.149%. But go right ahead and think that your math is correct. Once again, the choice is:

(a) Believe spitballers; or

(b) Believe people who have devoted decades and millions of hours of lives to study of viruses/epidemics

I'm choosing b.

 

Oh, how nice - Nate Silver is running his defective 'models' again.

There are reasons we haven't heard a peep out of this pinhead since early fall of 2016.

 

Since no one else answered it ---

1968 was wild. LBJ initially ran, since he hadn't served two full terms, but his health and the insurgent candidacies of McCarthy and Kennedy led him to withdraw. He threw his support behind Hubert Humphrey. But several states had already had primaries, and less than half of the country actually had primaries at the time, so it was a mess.

McCarthy and Kennedy were the two frontrunners in the primary states, while Humphrey focused on the caucuses. Humphrey had the delegate lead but had done poorly in the primary states, so far more people had voted for McCarthy/Kennedy. No one had claim to the nomination going into the convention. But Kennedy's death and his supporters' dislike of McCarthy despite similar campaigns meant Humphrey won on the first ballot while anti-war protests raged outside and Chicago cops were filmed beating protesters.

 

You haven't been paying attention, then. Silver and 538 remain the preeminent source for election data analysis.

 

The death rate in Los Angeles county is 1.7%.

Spin away, wannabe Clay Travises.

 

But according to Silver, cases are underreported tenfold.

So worldwide 5,200,000 cases, 24,000 deaths = 0.046% death rate.

As to your first sentence, there's no way to get a fix on how the deaths and cases correspond time-wise. All you can do is use the numbers you have.

Only if the case number is 100 percent accurate (because the death number likely is). And I think we all can agree that the case number is actually higher. See tenfold, above.

 

Trump: premature administration

 

Your cherry picking. You take the number of reported deaths as a static point, then extrapolate the number of actual cases using the projection.

What you fail to do is take the projected number of deaths:

"The expert consensus is that COVID-19 will cause 246,000 deaths in 2020, higher than last week’s estimate of 200,000 deaths. The consensus estimate ranges, though, between 36,000 and 1.1 million. "

Hey guess what? over 200,000 people are likely to die from this in the US. That's just under 1% of our population.