President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

This is untrue. They mean more after Labor Day, but they always have meaning. The Bloomberg columnist and poli sci professor Jonathan Bernstein grouped some presidential approval poll averages of incumbent Presidents up for re-election from the past at this time (April of election year) on Twitter today. Group 1. Reagan, Clinton and Nixon all positive by double digits. Group 2. Bush 43 and Obama, each positive by 2 or so. Group 3. Bush 41, Trump and Carter, all negative by at least six. Trump's negative by nine. Now that's the last seven who were all quite predictive of the Election seven months later. Why is Trump gonna be different? Maybe he will be, but that's the side of the proposition that needs to make an argument to me.
PS: Reuters has three new polls with Biden up three in Wisconsin, six in Pa. and eight in Michigan. Look at it from the other end of the telescope. If Trump had those numbers today, would anyone say, "oh, it's too early"? No, he'd be called a prohibitive favorite and rightly so.

 

Labor Day 2021, if recent history is any gauge.

 

Watched it last night and completely agree.

He’s never been a good speaker. But he’s an adult. And a statesman. Frankly, a few years of boring calm is what most of us need.

I’ve tried to block or mute all off the trumpers and bots on my social media. But stuff gets through. They’ll be all-in on attacking Biden’s “mental decline.” Edited clips. Freeze frames.

It’s just complete bullshit. Biden is fine and will be fine. Just end this chaos.

 

Whatever flaws Biden has, I can live with them far, far better than I can Trump's.

 

So what did Redfield actually say?

 

Axis of Idiocy:

Southern governors create a Covid-19 coalition and experts fear a 'perfect storm'

 

Biden was the front-runner for most of the last year - nationally. In the early primaries - microdata at its finest - he struggled. Once the question was put to a broader swath of the electorate, he won going away. When Trump was leading the 2016 primaries, the experts said it was all name recognition and there was no chance he would win, let alone become President. His presidency has been notable for the hard floor and hard ceilings of his approval ratings - I just don't see the remaining months (or his behavior) offering much hope of a sudden rebound. Even if the economy comes back to where it was, people won't be impressed. There needs to be a net positive out of this pandemic for him, and I just don't see it. He was 50/50 before the pandemic.

 

The New Confederacy. We'll see if it works any better than their last effort, which they're still celebrating in spite of its abject failure.

 

I’m just gonna leave this here.

 

Personally I think the key to Biden winning is to go into hiding. He is gaffe prone. But Trump is ging to continue doing press conferences. Contined exposire to those seems to be slowly grinding down Trump's populrity.