President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Redeployed Poin desk reporters really coming up with some good ones.
Trump 'wanted to rip open button-down shirt to reveal Superman tee when released from the hospital' | Daily Mail Online

 

climate change is easily the no. 1 issue of this century. Twenty years in, one party can barely muster the stomach to begrudgingly admit it even exists. Not only does it not have a plan, it wants to prop up energy sectors that aren’t just harmful but in some cases are now more expensive than the alternatives. Yet for some reason the other party putting forth plans to address the biggest problem of the century is the scandal.

 

Getting a jump on next year

https://nypost.com/2020/10/10/trump-nabs-2021-nobel-prize-nomination-from-finnish-right-wing-pol/

 

You sound like people back in 2008 screaming that Obama was going to take their guns away.
It never happened.
This will never happen.
You mentioned weeks ago about how worse life is, as a white man. (I'm paraphrasing, can't find the exact post but it's stuck with me.)
I wish you'd elaborate.

 

23 days before the 2016 election, Clinton had a 5-point lead in the polling averages. She lost 2 points in the polls in the remaining time, the real vote was 1 point below the polls, and the EC erased the remaining 2 points.

Biden currently holds a 10-point lead in the polling average, 5 points ahead of Clinton at the same time. (It’s also worth noting that 15% of voters were uncommitted at this point in 2016, versus just 6% now).

If Biden runs 5 points better than Clinton uniformly, he wins Clinton plus Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, NE-2, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for 332 electoral votes. And Georgia becomes effectively tied and could go either way.

Put another way, Trump cut it from -5 to -2 between his late comeback and he had about half a point to spare in the tipping point states, so the magic number was Trump -2.5.

So Trump needs to effectively gain 7.5 points in the next three weeks through some combination of polling error, comeback and pushing the tipping point even further into the red.

After 2016, I’m more interested in examining how it could happen than circlejerking about how improbable it is.

polling errors happen. Modern polling has gotten a lot better over the last couple of decades, but it faces the handicap that it’s not gauging how people feel but how they will act. A couple of points in either direction is plausible.

And some amount of comeback is plausible, maybe even likely. Trump is in the middle of one of the worst two weeks of his presidency politically. The few times his approval rating has peaked up in the last four years is when he manages to stay out of the news for a couple of weeks. If he can show that he’s acceptably healthy and avoid any new scandals, and something bad happens for Biden, Trump could get a couple of points back quickly.

And then there’s the EC advantage. Biden neutralizes some of the 2016 advantage, which came from Trump’s popularity in the rust belt, where Biden is also popular. But Republicans have been signaling an intent to fight very hard legally in any close state and may have a friendly Supreme Court to back them up. And I have no clue what’s going on with the post office but it seems pretty potentially nefarious. Could Trump find a way to be declared the legal winner of a state where people cast ballots against him by 4-5 points? I can’t honestly rule it out.

 

Rick, it's always POSSIBLE Trump can make it close enough to eke out another win in the electoral college, but every day makes that less possible. How is an incumbent President gonna stay out of the news for the three weeks before an election? Not to mention that for narcissist Trump, a day out of the news is like a day in prison. He WANTS the attention. So he's gonna zoom around the land, holding his plague rallies and getting whackier and whackier as the virus continues its strong fall rally. As for an attempt to flat out steal the election through the courts, I wonder if that's possible. The Supreme Court doesn't need Trump even if he needs them. Why invite civil war when you can let him take the chop then go on your merry way doing as you please?

 

Let's not underestimate how poorly informed, frightened and committed to chaos many voters are. Fear and ignorance abound in otherwise reasonable people.

'Sticking it to the libs' has become a form of government to them.

 

The truly concerning matter is that Mr. Biden’s lead in the “battleground” states is no larger than Mrs. Clinton’s at this time. This is interesting, because his “national” lead is very much larger. It is difficult to figure out.

 

Well, she did say “most.”

 

Yeah well Witzke the MAGA maggot bitch is currently trailing 63-33 in the polls. She'll be dancing in a titty bar in five weeks.