President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Great read. Told us what was going to happen with COVID. Two hundred pages on why he is unfit for office.

 

“We’re Watching an Incumbent Self-Destruct”: Polling Guru Who Predicted Trump’s 2016 Win Is Betting On Biden

 

Feathers not ruffled. The statement was that the tide has turned and Trump is reversing poll numbers. He's not, save for a few outliers.

I'm not taking a damn thing for granted until next Tuesday, however, or probably later.

 

I do like the cave drive-in (The Villages style) bar.

 

My friend, I hope you are correct. I did not myself say that the tide has “turned,” but that is the “chatter” among some. “Time will tell” whether these two polls indicate a “trend.”

As they say: “Stay tuned.”

 

You have to take everything west of the Tennessee River and preferably west of Dickson. Heck, I'll throw in a case of Jack Daniels and some Goo Goo Clusters if you'll take everything west of Percy Warner Park.

 

Thanks for sharing that. Some very interesting information in there. As much of a jackass as Bill Mitchell is (he's certainly not missed on Twitter), the one thing he was absolutely right about in 2016 was that polling heavily undersampled Republicans in Trump's base, something that Wasserman points out here. I would think that was one of the major corrections when it comes to polling in 2020.

 

Subhuman pile of crime. See also: Crybaby.

 

Thread.

 

Just a reminder a wise poster here once wrote, (and I continue to live by its injunction):

"Polls are for morons."

 

People are ruffled at the suggestion it means anything because it's a shit poll.

Since mid-February, Trump has led in exactly two polls, both produced by Rasmussen.

I'm not Nate Silver over here, but Rasmussen obviously does some different algebra with its raw data than the rest of the industry, and over time it's not proven very accurate. Maybe they hit on 2016, but they whiffed in 2018 and plenty of other times.

Buy into it if you want. Knock yourself out. But don't act all indignant when someone trots out a fucking Rasmussen poll and tells us "Trump is surging!!!!" and everyone shits on that idea. Maybe Trump is surging, but a Rasmussen poll is not going to be taken as evidence of that by besides trolls and Trump.

 

This is my laughing face