President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Gillespie could win. It's close. But if the very same polls that show Northam with a small lead showed Gillespie leading, everyone would assume the ball game was over and Gillespie was a shoo-in. One result of the 2016 election is that political media and many Democrats themselves now assume no Democrat will ever win a close election. This is the classic straight-line projection of Washington thought. Whatever happened last time will always happen again.

 

Those polls showing Northam with a “small lead” had him ahead by 6-10 points two weeks ago. He’s fading, and was just baited into voicing support for his opponent’s signature issue.

 

Straight line projection again. Poll leads shrink more often than not. Most Virginia elections won by Democrats are close wins. McAuliffe, Kaine, Warner, Clinton and Obama twice. That's the relevant history here, not what the polls were when the baseball playoffs began.

 

I don’t think they deserve to be punched. Maybe just forced to drink Folgers for a week ...

 

But when it drops, that’ll be Crooked Hillary’s fault.

 

How was he "baited"?

 

Someone should have asked the distinguished Wharton grad what "beta" means ...

 

Well, I mean, the whole issue is little more than “bait,” since it’s not a real issue here. I guess “unforced error” would probably be more accurate, though.

It shouldn’t be hard to keep track of the hot-button issues and where you stand on them.

 

Ouch. That’s mean.

 

I do think polls are less reliable these days because the Republicans are frequently nominating odious people for whom some respondents do not want to express verbal support. So they claim to be undecided or to be voting for the opponent when, in fact, they're going to betray any sense humanity and vote for the Trumpist. It will happen here. Take whatever the Trumpist has in the poll margin and add a couple of points.
In Alabama, add 10 to Roy Moore's final poll numbers.

 

WTOP keeps interviewing three VA Guv candidates. I think the third one is a Libertarian. What percent might he draw?

 

This question has been studied and there is little to no evidence to support your theory. People who answer polls are in general truthful. It's the increasing number of people, up to 90 percent, who won't answer phone calls or Internet solicitations by pollsters who're the real unknown in any election. Caller ID is on the verge of destroying polling as a business.